Analysis of the development status of LED lighting market in China, Japan and Vietnam
After years of promotion and application, LED lighting has become the mainstream of the lighting application market. With the rapid increase in market penetration in recent years, the price decline of LED lighting products has slowed down in 2016. At the same time, some analysts pointed out that the market growth momentum has begun to slow down, showing the phenomenon of uneven global demand.
According to the market demand and investment consulting report of China's LED lighting industry in 2016-2021, with the continuous development of the LED industry, the number of LED enterprises has also increased rapidly. Japan, South Korea, which are at the high end of the industrial chain, Japan, Europe, and the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain are gradually shifting to emerging markets with lower manufacturing costs. In view of the new US President Trump's coming to power, the industry generally believes that the uncertainties in the US market will increase in 2017, and emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East will have great growth potential and will be expected to become a battleground for military strategists...
Below, we will focus on the Asian region together, focusing on understanding the current situation of the LED lighting market in China, Japan and Vietnam, for reference.
China: Product exports are falling, indoors are still mainstreamIn the past 2016, the global accelerated elimination of incandescent lamps, LED has become the mainstream source of lighting. Among them, China's domestic LED lighting products output is about 8 billion, an increase of 33%; domestic sales of about 3.8 billion, an increase of 35%. The domestic market penetration rate of LED lighting products (the domestic sales volume of LED lighting products/the total domestic sales volume of lighting products) reached 42%, up 10% from 2015.
In terms of lighting exports, after years of rapid growth, China's LED lighting products exports began to decline in 2016. In the first 11 months of 2016, the cumulative export value of LED lighting products was nearly 9.4 billion US dollars, down 2.4% from the same period in 2015. The total export value for 2016 is estimated to be approximately $10.5 billion.
China's LED key areas of major export markets from January to November 2016
Throughout January-November 2016, the EU, the United States, Japan, ASEAN countries, BRICS countries and Middle East countries are the main markets for the export of LED lighting products in China, but the market is uneven and the growth is different. In the US market, the growth rate slowed down to 17%, and the market share increased by 4% compared with the same period of 2015; the EU growth rate was 23%; the Middle East market was booming, with the highest growth rate of 27% and a market share of 7%. It increased by 2 percentage points over the same period of last year. At the same time, the Russian market has fallen sharply; the BRICS market share has shrunk from 7% in the same period in 2015 to 6%; exports to Japan have fallen sharply, down 17% from the same period in 2015.
Indoor lighting is still the mainstream export product. In 2016, among the domestic LED lighting products, the export volume of bulbs ranked first, followed by tube lights, light bars and decorative lights. The market share of several major products (bulb lamps, tube lamps, light bars and spotlights) is gradually shrinking, with tube lamps decreasing by 11.99% year-on-year and spotlights decreasing by 28.98%, while decorative lamps, floodlights, and flat lamps The growth rate is faster, with flat lamps increasing by nearly 120% year-on-year.
According to relevant data, the average export price of LED lighting products decreased by 87.6% in the four years from the beginning of 2012 to the end of October 2016. From January to October 2016, the average export price of LED lighting products fell by more than 20%. In 2016, the concentration of the top ten manufacturers in export volume was 11%, which was basically the same as in 2015. The top ten companies and rankings changed slightly.
Japan: The market is relatively closed and the penetration rate is the highestJapan's local lighting manufacturing industry is developed, the industrial chain is well-equipped, and the manufacturing process is advanced. In the upstream of the industrial chain, there are two famous chip manufacturers, Nichia Chemical Co., Ltd. in Tokushima Prefecture, and Toyota Synthesizing in Aichi Prefecture. In addition, Showa Denko and ROHM are also working on LED chip development. Toshiba Electronics also worked. By purchasing Bridgelux's patented silicon substrate technology; MOCVD equipment manufacturers have Dayangjiu; epitaxial graphite carrier manufacturers have Toyo Carbon and Donghai Carbon.
Citizen and Sharp are in the middle of the package, and Shin-Etsu Chemical and Kyocera's ceramic package are included in the packaging materials. In addition to Panasonic and Toshiba, the downstream application vendors include NEC, Hitachi, Sharp, Mitsubishi, etc., Iwasaki, which is known as HID expert, and rising star Alice; in terms of lighting, Endo, Koizumi, Dasan, etc. Features; special lighting field, Xiaoyan is the leader of the car, Stanley can be described as versatile, and the oxtail motor is known as the originator of the authentic LED filament lamp. In terms of OLED, Panasonic, Mitsubishi Chemical, Sumitomo Chemical, Idemitsu Kosan, Konica Minolta and Zhonghua are at the forefront.
Japan has a small land area, a large population density, and a lack of natural resources. However, the local manufacturing industry is highly developed and is the most developed country in Asia and the third largest economy in the world. It is understood that the nuclear leakage caused by the 2011 earthquake has caused a subversive change in the energy consumption concept of the Japanese people. It is found that nuclear energy is no longer a worry-free, and the urgent need for lighting energy conservation has made emerging LED lighting useable. This has ushered in the rapid development of the LED industry.
Since 2011, LED replacement products have been able to grow at a high speed. In less than three years, they have occupied more than half of the lighting market. LEDs have the advantages of energy saving and long life, which makes the replacement product market rapidly by the end of 2013. Approaching saturation, the market potential began to turn toward the direction of LED integrated lamps. The industrial planning of the Japan Lighting Industry Association envisages that in 2020, the Japanese lighting market will sell 100% of its LED products; by 2030, all lighting products including market sales and stocks will be LED products. In general, Japan is currently the developed country with the highest penetration rate of LED lighting in the world.
Japan also has strong product development and manufacturing capabilities, and a complete supporting industry, which also determines that it is a relatively closed market. Strong as international giants PHILIPS and OSRAM have not really opened up the Japanese market, but only rely on acquisitions, joint ventures and other means to enter. In addition, the Japanese market's lighting product certification system (PSE certification), electrical safety requirements, such as external power LED lamps require Class A PSE diamond certification. In addition, the power supply must be isolated power, and the chip and phosphor of the whole lamp are also patented. The entry threshold is high, and the requirements of individual customers are also high, but the total amount and profit are good, the reputation is generally good, and it is very suitable for enterprises that produce medium and high-end products.
Although Japan is a big country and a strong country in the manufacture of lighting products and has the capacity to be self-sufficient, it is still an important market for the export of lighting products in China. In 2015, China's exports to Japan totaled US$1.34 billion, down 14.2% year-on-year; among them, 570 million LED lighting products, down 6.57% year-on-year, and exports ranked 4th in export destinations, while LED lighting products in 2016 were about 5 Billion, a further decline year-on-year, is still the fourth highest in export destination countries (except Hong Kong re-export).
For traditional light source products, first look at the heat radiation source. In March 2010, Toshiba, which produced Japan's first incandescent light bulb, announced that it had discontinued its 120-year-old incandescent lamp. The Japanese government has also been working on the exit of the incandescent lamp. . However, in reality, incandescent lamps are still on the market. It can be seen from the export figures that a small number of incandescent lamps are still exported to Japan, and the price has not changed much. The quantity, amount and unit price of tungsten halogen lamps have basically shown a downward trend. Fluorescent lamp products have always been favored in the Japanese market, and whether it is compact fluorescent lamps or straight tubes and circular fluorescent lamps, in recent years, due to the replacement of LED lighting products, it has entered a gradual downward channel, and the unit price is basically stable.
In terms of HID, high-pressure sodium lamps are products imported from Japan. On the one hand, they prefer metal halide lamps for outdoor applications, and on the other hand, they are more self-produced; high-pressure mercury lamps have high energy consumption and mercury-containing disadvantages. In recent years, the quantity, amount and unit price have shown a significant downward trend, which is also in line with the global common trend; metal halide lamps are the most direct products affected by LED, and the downward trend of various indicators is also very obvious. In summary, with the continuous improvement of the cost performance of LED lighting products, it has become a long-term difference between traditional products and traditional products. In the future, traditional lighting products will coexist with LED lighting products in the market for a long time. LED lighting The share of products will increase year by year.
According to the above figure, it is different from the continuous growth of the export of LED lighting products in China. The LED lighting products exported to Japan are affected by the economic downturn, the demand is weakening, the growth base is too large, and the product life span is prolonged. As a result of factors such as the appreciation of the renminbi, the total amount is impressive, but it has shown a slow decline in recent years.
Vietnam: Market development is fast, opportunity risks are at the same timeAccording to the LEDInside Southeast Asia Lighting Market Report, the LED lighting industry in recent years has gradually increased the saturation of mature markets such as Europe, America and Japan. The Chinese market has fierce price competition and numerous suppliers. Therefore, emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East are becoming the most important nuggets for many manufacturers. Among them, the Vietnamese market has attracted many foreign-funded enterprises to set up factories because of the low labor cost, and the per capita income has increased year by year, which has the opportunity to drive the local LED lighting market demand. LEDinside analysis and statistics pointed out that among the major Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam's LED lighting market share grew fastest, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of more than 60% from 2013 to 2015. By 2016, the LED lighting market reached 348 million US dollars and the penetration rate exceeded 40%.
In the past, in the era of traditional lighting, Vietnam consumed about 200 million traditional light bulbs each year, mainly based on traditional tungsten filament bulbs that consume more electricity. In recent years, the traditional lighting market in Vietnam has continued to decline, and the LED lighting market has always maintained a rising trend. Considering the growth momentum brought by government subsidies and rising market demand, the growth rate of LED lighting penetration is expected to further increase. By 2018, the penetration rate is expected to reach 51%.
As the country with the 14th largest population in the world, Vietnam has a population of 94 million. At present, half of the total population is under 30 years old and 60% is working age. Rich human resources and labor costs are relatively low in Asian countries. The land area available for use in Vietnam is about 34.76 million hectares. In 2011-2015, the development and use of 30.998 million hectares, including 130,000 hectares of industrial land, and the rental price of industrial land is about 30-100 US dollars / square meter / year. In addition, the government has been working hard to strengthen social and political stability, revitalize the economy and investment climate, and intensify efforts to develop infrastructure. According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam, by 2020, Vietnam will need to invest US$150-160 billion in infrastructure construction.
Low land, labor costs, and rapid development of infrastructure and political economy have made Vietnam a successful investment in new investments in electronics and electrical products. In particular, major Korean manufacturers have laid out production lines in Vietnam in an effort to make full use of local resources. Samsung has invested in Vietnam to set up production bases and R&D centers for mobile phones, batteries, electronic components, displays, household appliances, etc., with a total investment of more than 12 billion US dollars. Currently 50% of Samsung mobile phones are produced in Vietnam. LG is also investing $3 billion in Vietnam to produce OLED display modules as well as mobile phones, televisions and other household appliances. In addition, Seoul Semiconductor and Lumens invested 300 million and 20 million US dollars respectively in Vietnam's production.
In the LED lighting manufacturers, the Vietnamese market is currently dominated by local lighting manufacturers and European and American manufacturers. Famous local lighting companies in Vietnam include Dien Quang, Rang Dong, Duhal, etc., while foreign companies are mainly Philips, Cara, Eurolight and other companies. Despite this, as local manufacturers are mainly concentrated in the field of downstream lighting assembly, the industry chain is missing, and there is still room for development in the overall industrial chain. However, the Vietnamese lighting market is mainly based on engineering construction, mostly from the demand for LED lighting in new factories, or part of the government's standard. Therefore, most of them need to cooperate with the local Vietnamese lighting manufacturers, or set up an assembly factory in the local area to obtain the bid.
In general, as a fast-growing emerging market, Vietnam's overall economic, infrastructure, resources and other positive factors are promoting LED lighting companies to invest and develop local markets. In addition, the Vietnamese people's spending power has gradually grown. After the past China and Thailand, Vietnam's domestic demand market has also begun to flourish. In the early stage, the company can promote the products through appropriate agents, and then establish brand awareness in the local area through government support, or obtain local access channels through mergers and acquisitions, thereby expanding the local domestic demand market and successfully deploying.
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