The kinetic energy of 18-inch wafers seems to be weakening. Where are the opportunities in the future?

According to the latest report released by market research firm IC Insights, 12-inch (300mm) wafers accounted for 64% of global fab capacity by the end of 2016. It is expected that this ratio will continue to grow, reaching 8% compound year between 2016 and 2021. The average growth rate (CAGR) is over 71%.

For some time, the semiconductor industry has actively promoted the 18-inch (450mm) fabs to go online, and has not yet given up - although many industry observers are skeptical about 18-inch wafers; The kinetic energy of 18-inch wafers seems to have disappeared. One is called the Global 450 Consortium (G450C). Members include Intel, TSMC, Globalfoundries, IBM, Samsung and SUNY University of Technology (SUNY). Polytechnic Institute and other industry and academic heavyweight representatives -- the industry alliance quietly completed the first phase of 18-inch wafer technology research and development at the end of last year, when the second phase is undecided.

G. Dan Hutcheson, chairman and CEO of VLSI Research, which has long studied the semiconductor equipment market, said in an interview with EE Times in January that 18-inch wafers "should remain silent in the next 5 to 10 years"; say 5 to 10 years Still too optimistic, Christian Dieseldorff, director of industry research and analysis at SEMI, recently commented on the EE Times interview: "I don't see any signs of 18-inch wafers coming out."

Proportion of wafers of various sizes in global semiconductor production capacity

(Source: IC Insights)

Dieseldorff, like other semiconductor industry players, has witnessed the first-line demonstration of 8-inch wafer upgrades to 12-inch wafers; he said the main problem with 18-inch wafer dysfunction is its initial cost, as well as wafer manufacturers, Equipment suppliers have not reached a consensus on whether to allocate this huge cost. “12-inch wafers have also encountered the same problem,” he said. “No one wants to punch the first one.”

At the same time, the industry's use of 12-inch wafers continues to increase; IC Insights predicts that the number of 12-inch wafer fabs worldwide will increase from the current 98 to 120 in 2021. The SEMI tracking figures show that there will be 45 12-inch new plants coming online between 2016 and 2021, and this figure does not include the development of fabs or pilot lines.

According to IC Insights statistics, there are still many 8-inch fabs that are very active, because 12-inch wafers are not economical for certain types of components, such as dedicated memory, display drivers, microcontrollers. , as well as RF, analog products; the agency's report pointed out: "Fabs operating 8-inch wafer production lines will continue to profit from the production of various types of ICs for many years to come."

IC Insights noted that 8-inch fabs are also used in "non-IC" products such as MEMS accelerometers, pressure sensors and actuators, as well as micro-mirrors for acoustic RF filters, digital projectors and display applications. Wafers, as well as discrete power components as well as some high-brightness LEDs and so on.