Will the electricity shortage still be reproduced in 2012?

After undergoing a serious “electricity shortage” in 2011, will there be major changes in China's electricity demand in 2012? Will “structured power shortages” and “mechanical power shortages” reappear and will there be any adjustment in electricity prices?

The 2012 forecast report issued by CEC has answered this question to a certain extent.

The report predicts that the expected effects of the national macroeconomic regulation and control will be further manifested in 2012, the economy will continue to develop steadily and rapidly, and the growth of electricity demand will slow down. However, due to the slow growth of installed capacity, especially thermal power equipment, insufficient supply of coal, and uncertainty in the availability of hydropower Affected by other factors, it is expected that the electricity supply and demand in the country will remain tight, and regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages will be more prominent.

"The coal-electricity gap will certainly promote the reform of electricity prices. But in 2012, the economic downturn, the demand for electricity cannot go up, and it is not necessarily a good thing for the reform." Professor Zeng Ming of North China Electric Power University pointed out in an interview with a reporter.

The power gap exceeds 30 million kilowatts. According to the report, in 2012, the general tone of the country’s “stability for progress” and more effective macroeconomic regulation will ensure that the economy will maintain stable and rapid growth, and the economic and electric power growth rate will decline. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is between 8.5% and 10.5%, the recommended scheme is 9.5%, and the annual electricity consumption is 5.14 trillion KWh, which may present a “low before and after high” distribution.

In terms of supply, it is estimated that about 85 million kilowatts of new installed capacity will be installed, including about 20 million kilowatts of hydropower and about 50 million kilowatts of thermal power. By the end of the year, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation will have reached approximately 1.14 billion kilowatts. However, the report pointed out: "The hydropower production situation in 2012 may still be not optimistic. The most critical guarantee for power supply is to ensure the supply of coal for thermal power production."

The report pointed out that judging from the current situation, in 2012, there was a relatively high probability of water inflows from the front of the Yangtze River. The regional and seasonal contradictions of electric coal are still prominent, and the external environment for supply is still severe. Based on the comprehensive balance analysis, it is expected that the nation's electricity supply and demand will remain generally tight in 2012, and regional, seasonal, and seasonal power shortages will remain prominent. The maximum power gap is 30 to 40 million kilowatts.

From 30 million to 40 million kilowatts, this estimate is even higher than the 30 million kilowatts of electricity supply shortage that occurred during the peak of the “electricity shortage” in the summer of 2011.

However, China Electricity Regulatory Commission expert Wu Jiang told reporters that the electricity demand in 2012 is not expected to be too high, and the supply and demand situation should be better than in 2011.

Renewable energy can hardly be responsible for the country's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outline. In 2015, renewable energy accounted for 11.4% of primary energy consumption. To achieve this goal, we need a series of technological breakthroughs and institutional innovations.

For example, in recent years, China's wind power installations have doubled year after year, reaching 45.05 million kilowatts by the end of 2011, and the proportion of newly added installed capacity of wind power accounts for nearly 20% of all new installed capacity. However, although China has become the largest country with installed wind power, grid-connected power generation has not been able to increase in direct proportion to new installed capacity.

The report suggests that in power planning, power supply project arrangements, etc., it pays close attention to the impact of new energy generation on the scale of power supply construction and the balance between power supply and demand. While actively developing new energy generation, it also seriously studies and formulates and actively implements the requirements for reliable supply of electricity. Power grid planning and construction arrangements.

However, since 2011, the introduction of wind power grid-connected standards has also been foreshadowing, indicating that 2012 will be the year for China's wind power integration.

In addition, at the 2012 National Energy Work Conference held recently, Liu Tienan, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Energy Administration, said that a total energy consumption control plan has been initially formed. The former director of the Planning Division of the National Energy Administration, Chang Bingbing, publicly stated that in the assessment mechanism, the government will “open up a hole” for local governments to reflect the policy of encouraging renewable energy and energy conservation.

According to the policy, new energy consumption in the areas of hydropower, wind power, solar energy, and comprehensive energy utilization will be deducted from the assessment of energy saving and emission reduction targets. This measure will also directly encourage local development of renewable energy to fill the gap in energy consumption.

However, when interviewed by a reporter, Wang Zuoxiu, a professor at the China University of Mining and Technology, analyzed that: "If we do not add nuclear power, new energy may not be able to guarantee a balance between supply and demand."

At present, the resumption of nuclear power is nearing immediate completion. The report proposes to speed up the preparation and approval of nuclear power safety planning, and restore and appropriately speed up the approval of new nuclear power projects under the precondition of ensuring safety.

Straightening out the power shortages that have existed for many years in the price has made the demand for electricity price reforms increasingly high.

The report predicts that in 2012, the national coal consumption will increase by about 150 million tons from the previous year, and it will need more than 300 million tons of coal supply in the country to better protect the coal needs.

Therefore, the report recommends:

First, increase coal production, start coal-electricity linkage in a timely manner, streamline the formation of electricity pricing mechanism as soon as possible, control the price of electric coal, guarantee the transportation of electric coal, and speed up the approval of the construction of a coal transportation channel for the “Northern Coal South Transport” railway.

Second, the use of electricity prices and other economic adjustment means, the introduction and implementation of such as differential electricity prices, punitive electricity prices and peaks and valleys prices and other measures to form the industrial structure adjustment and energy saving mechanism.

Third, insist on coal transmission and transmission simultaneously, accelerate the large-scale and intensive development of large-scale coal and electric power bases in the western and northern regions, and use advanced transmission technologies such as UHV and large-capacity DC to transfer electric power to the load center in Central and Eastern China to ease the transportation capacity of railways and highways. Insufficient contradictions and the realization of optimal allocation of energy resources in a wider range have recently accelerated the approval of a number of coal-fired electric power bases such as Ximeng, Mengxi and Xinjiang, as well as the transmission of power transmission projects.

However, some people in the industry pointed out that the report's proposal on electricity price reform has no new meaning.

"Either civilian or industrial use, electricity prices are still cheap, but it is very difficult to raise prices." Wang Zuotang pointed out that through measures such as differential electricity prices, it is possible to deepen demand-side management and orderly electricity use measures to promote economic restructuring.

Zhou Dadi, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that electricity demand will affect the tariff adjustment. If the overall power demand is weak, electricity price reform will be more difficult; if electricity demand still maintains a high degree of growth, electricity prices will face greater upward pressure.