The color TV industry has spent halftime and is preparing a new realm of 2015

In 2014, the dim picture of the color TV industry was a temporary state, or was it the industry's new normal? This problem has become a central issue that has plagued China, the world's largest color TV kingdom!

With three quarters in 2014, the overall downturn in the color TV industry cannot be changed. In order to illustrate this fact, the author has three data: First, the annual sales decline of 6-7%; Second, the annual sales fell 12-13%; Third, half of color TV business profit is in the state of profit or loss .

So why does the color TV industry have this "low tide"? The author thinks that there are at least three common factors.

The first reason people can easily think of is the "policy exit" effect. In the second quarter of 2013, the color TV industry ushered in a sales peak. This is because this is the last quarter of the implementation of the National Energy Saving Television Subsidy Policy. The market overdraft effect caused by the subsidy policy has promoted at least 5 percentage points of industry growth. Only in this quarter is the direct overdraft short-term market size of more than 2.3 million units. The industry believes that the National Energy Conservation Subsidy Policy's overdraft effect on TV sales in the future will last for at least 18-24 months, which means that in 2014, especially in the first half of the year, the decline in color TV sales is closely related to the policy overdraft market.

However, there is a second reason for the low tide in the color TV industry: the spoils in the box market. In 2014, the sales of smart box products were eager to be five times that of 2013, and the scale of the smart box products was about 10 million units. The smart box is directly eroded by the "smart TV for new" market. With a box, consumers can obtain the most advanced smart TV product features with only one-tenth of the investment. At least half of the sales volume of box million units is the preempted color TV exchange market.

The "low tide" of the color TV industry also stems from "the long life of LCD TV technology itself." It is understood that the current screen life of LED light source LCD TV is generally 100,000 hours. If you watch TV 8 hours a day, you can use it for more than 30 years—this is far more than the 10 years of stable life of this CRT product. The market size of the color TV industry is stable and depends on the "stable frequency of product replacement." The longer life of liquid crystals than CRTs will inevitably lead to a reduction in the frequency of replacement of their products, which in turn will lead to a decline in the size of the stock market.

The above three reasons are the main reasons for the so-called "winter" of the color TV industry in 2014. Among them, the latter two are also the key reasons for the decline of 9 percent in the US color TV market in 2013. However, for the traditional color TV giants, in addition to the above common market factors, there are more factors, leading to the decline in the performance of these companies. These factors have different effects on different color TV companies and are individual factors.

First, LCD panels and backlight products that account for the vast majority of the core cost of color TV products have been at a price drop channel. The current average annual decline is about 10%. The proportion of high-end and large-size products has fallen more. This has caused the TV companies to sell more and more cheaper terminal products - not to mention the decline in sales volume, even if sales are stable, or even a slight increase, color TV companies may not be able to achieve "sales" of this operating data upgrade.

Second, the rise of emerging color TV brands. LeTV's annual plan for 1.5 million units should be free from major obstacles. Xiaomi TV2 can also approach the goal of achieving a million units before the Spring Festival. These companies not only directly captured the traditional color TV giant's market, but also their respected cost pricing, low price and high distribution strategy, also changed the color TV industry's pricing system and pricing power. This has brought a direct and adverse impact on traditional TV companies in both sales volume and product pricing.

Third, e-commerce TV has risen rapidly. In the third quarter of 2014, e-commerce TV sales exceeded the 2 million units for the first time in a single quarter, and the market share accounted for nearly 18%, an increase of nearly 70% year-on-year. It is expected that the sales volume of TVs in the e-commerce market will reach 7.5 million to 8 million units throughout the year, and will exceed 10 million in the next year. The e-commerce color TV market is characterized by low prices, and the increase in e-commerce color TV sales will inevitably lead to a drop in the overall sales volume of the color TV industry. In addition, in response to the outbreak of the e-commerce market, traditional brands are not in step. The slow-moving brand of action and change will inevitably be at a disadvantage in the e-commerce market, which in turn will drag down the overall market performance.

The above three factors have further aggravated the market pressure of some traditional TV brands, resulting in the loss of some companies and a significant contraction in their business.

TV color is the new normal or halftime

From the common factors that lead to changes in the performance of color TV companies, the policy overdraft effect is a short-term factor; box spoiler is to restructure the market structure and have a long-term nature; long-lived LCDs can not change the industry background.

From the individual factors that led to changes in the performance of color TV companies, the downward trend in panel prices will not perpetuate itself, but it will be difficult to change within three years. It is a medium-term factor; the rise of emerging brands has changed the inherent market structure of the color TV industry. The impact is long-term. Including the rise of e-commerce, the change in color TV industry channels is also long-term and irreversible. However, the impact of these two factors can be quickly digested in the short term: traditional color TV companies are actively responding to the rise of new brands and channel changes brought about by e-commerce. This is not just a matter of declining performance, but a crisis of corporate survival. In other words, for color TV companies that have properly responded to these two industry changes, Internet brands and e-commerce will not be long-term "negative" impacts. They may also be positive and new opportunities.

In summary, the factors that led to the "winter" of color TV companies are both long-term and short-term. Both have negative factors, and there are also factors that can be turned into favorable conditions through proper corporate response and hard work.

It is precisely because of the "dynamic evolution complexity" of these reasons for the changes in the color TV industry's performance in 2014 that it is unscientific and irresponsible to simply say that "slip is the new normal." More than that, the competition in the color TV industry has not been eased by this new change. The downturn in the color TV market is actually a bizarre point in the brewing industry.

In this regard, the author is more willing to regard the special status of China's color TV industry in 2014 as a "half break." The second half of the game will begin soon, and it will be extremely fierce. It will have more bloody taste and test of life and death.

Market Forced "Color TV" Innovation

The cold winter of the color TV industry in 2014 has already formed a “forced” effect on the transformation of the traditional color TV industry. Here are some examples to prove.

In the hot season of color TV sales around the year of 2014, the overall sales volume fell by one-fourth in the first-tier and second-tier cities and home appliance chain stores, and some stores’ sales fell by 40%. At the same time, Tmall and Jingdong’s “brushing in the countryside” campaign has begun, and e-commerce channels have begun to sink to the 3rd and 4th level and the rural market. It also poses a potential threat to self-built channels, franchise stores and specialty stores of traditional TV companies.

In this context, e-commerce has become a mainstream channel for TVs from complementary channels. The delivery of market discourse rights has begun. One of the core impacts is: 2 years ago, the lowest price of the color TV market in the whole year was often seen in the 11 Golden Week market. However, at the Tmall Double 11 shopping festival this year, the price of color TV products has been lower than that of the 11th Golden Week.

For another example, the rise of Internet color TV companies such as Xiaomi and Leshi brought new breath to the consumer market: fashion cultural experience, the value rule of high and low price and cost pricing, channel system of e-commerce and logistics integration, fan culture and users. Sticky construction and so on. This directly prompted the traditional color TV companies to launch mod cards, KKTV, cool open and other Internet sub-brands. This led to the great changes and diversification of the brand culture of the TV market, and further fostered the concept and habits of consumers under the concept of the Internet.

The “internal” force of color TV industry has been very clear. The industry transformation factors including boxes, panel industry rules, e-commerce, and internet brands all belong to the “marginal revolution” forces. The influence of this power is either insignificant or it is necessary to completely change the traditional pattern. The traditional color TV industry has undergone a transition from neglect to attention for these forces, and has experienced strategic adjustments from tactical responses to strategic corporate transformation. However, innovation in the color TV industry that is truly under the new rules has only just begun.

For example, since the middle of 2014, SARFT has strengthened the supervision of smart TV content. The main policies include, first, a more rigorous implementation of the Internet television content broadcast control platform system. This directly led to LeTV's alliance with Chongqing Broadcasting and Television, and the injection of iQIYI TV's business into the Galaxy and Xiaomi also a curve-line alliance license and content provider. In the third quarter alone, the total assets involved in this adjustment have already exceeded 10 billion yuan. Second, implement a content management system that is consistent with the broadcast and television system for Internet commercial video. The most affected is the qualification of "American drama on the line." Internet content imported into film and television content, for the first time outside the regulatory system, was incorporated into the regulatory system. How big the influence of this new policy will be is still unknown.

Another example is Changhong’s main multi-screen TV application at the beginning of the year, TCL’s launch of the game console TV in the second quarter, the launch of the WeChat TV in the third quarter, Konka’s Tencent’s alliance with the main Internet game concept, and LeTV’s leadership in the concept of big screen. The main push is 50, 60 and 70-inch products, Hisense LCD TVs in the third quarter...

The facts show that the enthusiasm of color TV companies in the so-called winter is not a recession, but an outbreak. Throughout the color TV industry, the frequency of product and market innovations is high and the impact is not decreasing but increasing.

Reverse market input: This is the consensus of the entire color TV industry. The more winter, the more we must think of ways to heat, otherwise there is only one consequence, that is, "frozen to death." This is the simplest business philosophy. In the face of industry changes and a complex industry environment, the future market must not be afraid and hesitant. The author believes that in this trend, 2015 will be a new high tide for the "color TV business fighting."

In 2015, the new vision, color TV industry should focus on edge breakthrough

Caused by the cold winter of the color TV industry in 2014, in addition to the overdraft effect of the energy-saving subsidy policy, the others are almost all “marginal revolutions”. This led to color TV companies to deal with the current industry "new state" approach should also be "edgebreak."

On the one hand, the color TV industry has achieved product intelligence, large screen, 4K: color TV application technology is in a "relative excess" period. The space for innovation based on core products is not only limited, but it is difficult to find "corresponding market demands" to settle down. On the other hand, although the ecological culture centered on "use of television" has had many years of efforts, it still has not seen any transformative results. The huge market gap and sufficient space for industrial upswing can not only support the new competition value point of color TV companies, but also bring in some new business models and profit models.

In November 2014, Chen Hao, one of the earliest angel investors of Sina's editor-in-chief and Xiaomi, formally joined the Xiaomi team and will soon be responsible for the planning and development of the “content” business. This is considered to be Xiaomi’s desire to open up the strategic offensive line from palm millet to Xiaomi in the living room through the industrial chain of content, boxes, and color TVs. However, Xiaomi’s energy is not only that: the energy of “smart TV peripheral” sensor network composed of bracelets, mobile phones, and routing will also help Xiaomi to obtain different “edge product value” in “similar television hardware”. "Experience.

In the past two years, color TV innovations are smart and the Internet. However, the future of color TV innovation will be "network content." The network is the information capabilities and intelligence is the hardware capability to process information: the core of the value of the two is "to have enough valuable content and information to be handled." Therefore, outside the living room is a video site, a shopping site, and a municipal service; within the living room is a "sensor" system.

The latest version of CoolTV has already been planned to “discard the remote control.” Last year’s cool-on TV did not have a high-frequency head, and this year’s cool-on TV did not have a remote control. Because, Skyworth hopes that the Cool Open brand will represent the future, with the function of the hardware being deleted, and the user will be “forced” into the fast lane of the future model.

Tcl WeChat TV, although looking at the surface only smart TV adds an application feature. However, WeChat needs the support of a microphone and a camera to really "play it." This changes the product ecology from the edge of the hardware. The microphone and camera are also "a type of sensor."

The edge of the TV is the sensor: he can link the visual janitor, air conditioner temperature, indoor humidity, rice cooker timer alarm, display the audience's heartbeat and breathing, can connect the viewer's network ID card and payment system, of course, these sensors also include somatosensory handle, Game accessories, etc... These changes not only require software, networking, but also a series of product peripheral hardware.

Therefore, the “edge innovation” required for a TV to really use and use an intelligent experience is not a bit of a point: realizing these new values ​​requires new hardware, new software, new data management and services, and more new consumption. Concepts and usage habits. Let TV be able to understand the value of the link at the end of the Internet, the living room and home environment, the “smart brain” required by the audience; let TV applications truly become partners in life, not just “entertainment, watching movies” tools, TV companies still have a long way to go.

Facing this kind of future, color TV companies need not only to maintain innovations in display technology and intelligent hardware, but also to need peripheral equipment and software innovation. Especially in the context of relative oversupply of color TV hardware products, rapid growth in market demand in the short term, and continuous decline in the prices of product terminals, color TV companies urgently need to expand their innovative spindles to the “application” layer and peripheral devices.

The author believes that the cold winter of TV companies in 2014 is "normal" or "intermediate rest", not depending on how cold the winter is, but depends on how the color TV companies respond and depends on whether the color TV companies can break through the tradition of making products. Thinking and forming an ecological new industry thinking depend on the success or failure of color TV companies' edge innovation. Faced with the application changes brought about by the Internet and intelligence, the competition of color TV companies has already gone through the midfield. The decisive battle is likely to come in 2015: Are everyone ready?