4K TV is about to become popular

In the past two years, with the development of the Internet, broadband, and big data, the enthusiasm of the digital economy has gradually opened up. 4K ultra-high-definition TV is the focus of the family digital economy, and its importance is being re-recognized. 4K TV also truly enters the development of gold. era. The data shows that the market penetration rate of 4K TV in China reached 58% in 2017. It is generally believed that when the penetration rate of 4K TV is above 60%, it has reached the popularization level.

4K TV penetration rate will exceed 60%

According to China Electronics Video Industry Association data, the market penetration rate of China's 4K TV has increased from 2% in 2013 to 58% in 2017. In the past five years, 4K TV has experienced the fastest growth of five years. After 2017, the growth rate of 4K TV penetration will gradually slow down to 71% by 2020. The industry generally believes that when the 4K TV penetration rate is above 60%, it has reached the level of popularity.

The global 4K TV is not growing as fast as the Chinese market. According to Qunzhi Consulting data, the global shipment ratio of UD TV (Ultra HDTV) in 2015 was 12.9%, and it was 35.3% in 2017. Forecast data shows that global penetration of 4K TV will rise to over 40% in 2018.

Ou Weiyun network analyst Cui Jilong believes that the reason why the Chinese market is developing faster than the global market is that Chinese consumers are more willing to try new technology products. 4K TV is more clear than 2K TV. For consumers who are currently pursuing image quality, the willingness to purchase 4K TV is even stronger.

Peng Xiandong, general manager of Zhongyi Kang Black Power, said that the craze for LCD TVs replacing CRT TVs around 2010 has passed seven or eight years. Now, when another wave of machine changes is coming, consumers are all recognizing that TV display technology is higher. The trend of resolution development, so when buying a new machine, it will naturally choose a new TV with higher resolution, such as 4K TV. Although the current 4K TV programs and TV dramas have not been as rich as the ones expected in the past five years, 4K TVs have been criticized by many people as having no 4K source, but from a technical perspective, even SD, HD The effect of watching a program or a film source on a 4K TV is also clearer than that of a 2K TV.

In fact, the upstream panel industry is driving the TV to the 4K era to be more powerful. The panel occupies 60% of the total cost of the TV. In the past few years, the production capacity of the 8.5-generation LCD panel production line has expanded rapidly. The shipment of large-size 4K panels has risen rapidly, and the cost price has been declining. The price of 4K TVs has dropped to the level acceptable to consumers, which has further stimulated. 4K TV sales in the terminal market. According to data provided by Qunzhi Consulting, the price of the 55-inch 4K panel in the first quarter of 2015 was US$286. By the fourth quarter of 2017, the price fell by more than US$100 to US$174.

In the whole machine manufacturer, although the TV industry is driven by display technology, TV manufacturers are also very happy to see 4K TV sales increase. 4K TVs are usually equipped with large screens of 50 inches or more. The larger the screen, the higher the TV price, and the higher the profit the manufacturer gets. Compared with white electricity, the profit margin of color TV manufacturers has been declining year by year. In the first half of 2017, due to the sharp rise in prices of raw materials and key components, the net profit margin of China's TV industry was less than 1%, and many companies were in a state of negative performance growth. 4K big-screen TV is one of the directions for TV manufacturers to upgrade to the middle and high-end. The return to the big-screen ultra-HD market has become more and more the main theme. The penetration rate of 4K TVs of major brands is rising. The data of Ovi Cloud shows that the penetration rate of Skyworth 4K TV is 56%, and the penetration rate of Changhong and Konka 4K TV is also over 50%.

Ultra HD is the future direction

It should be noted that although the penetration rate of 4K TV is close to 60%, it is at the popular level, but the penetration rate of 4K TVs of different sizes is quite different. Small and medium-sized 4K TVs are relatively small, with a penetration rate of less than 30%. The penetration rate of 49-inch to 55-inch 4K TV is generally over 60%. The penetration rate of 4K TV above 55 inches is above 80%. The larger the size, the higher the permeability; the smaller the size, the weaker the presence of 4K.

Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, told reporters that there is basically no 4K TV under 40 inches, and the penetration rate of 4K TV above 49 inches is more than 80%. It is basically saturated in this market. In the future, 4K TV will penetrate further into small and medium sizes, and the space for penetration into large sizes above 55 inches is limited, and the pressure for further development is greater. Moreover, Peng Xiandong pointed out that in the small and medium-sized TVs of 40 inches or less, considering the factors of the best viewing distance of the human eye, the presentation effect of 2K and 4K TVs is not much different for consumers, so it is below 40 inches. It is not necessary to do 4K resolution on TV.

The call for 4K TVs to advance to 8K TVs is getting higher and higher in recent months. Forecast data shows that by 2020, the market penetration rate of 8K TVs above 65 inches will reach about 10%. At present, only Sharp has launched a 70-inch 8K consumer TV. In general, 8K TV is one of the future development directions of TV, but in the next 3 to 5 years, 4K TV is still the mainstream.

On a 55-inch TV, similar to the situation encountered by a TV below 40 inches, the 8K display effect and the 4K display effect are not much different for the consumer, and the 8K display effect is required, and the panel process, process, and display technology are determined. It is economical to make it on products that are only 65 inches or more. So, 65 inches is the starting size of 8K TV. In the next five years, the market share of 65-inch TV is only 10% to 15%, and it cannot become the mainstream of the market. Han Xuewen, senior product manager of Hisense, told reporters that the development of 8K TV will not be as rapid as 4K TV instead of 2K TV. For a long time, 4K TV will be the mainstream.

4K TV reshapes the industry ecosystem

For a long time, the evolution of the TV industry has been driven by display technology, and hardware is the part that reflects the main value of color TV products. As mentioned above, the screen occupies a cost of 60% to 70% in the price of the TV. The advantages and disadvantages of the screen determine most of the advantages and disadvantages of the TV product. The technological evolution and evolution of the screen has brought a development bonus to the TV industry, but the impact of relying too much on the screen is becoming more and more prominent in the current color TV industry.

The consulting firm estimated that the global profit of the six major LCD panel factories in 2017 will reach 14 billion to 15 billion US dollars, close to 100 billion yuan. In the same period, the profit of the color TV industry was less than 2 billion yuan. In the past five years, the profit margins of China's six major color TV companies have continued to decline from 3% and have been at a low level. Restoring profits is an important issue for color TV companies.

In the past, color TV companies held the idea of ​​“hardware is king”, relying entirely on the quality and differentiation of TV products to obtain profits. The entry of Internet companies into the TV industry has brought new ideas of “content is king” to TV manufacturers, and has educated consumers. Whether it is hardware or content, TV manufacturers are increasingly aware of the ultimate orientation of “experience is king”, which also brings them new profit directions. 4K TV is a very good opportunity.

The 4K TV is also a smart TV. Smart TV is considered to be an extremely important export for the color TV industry to transform and upgrade and reshape the ecological chain. In the era of intelligence, TV manufacturers have created new profit models with intelligent operating systems and smart applications. Ma Songlin, deputy dean of the TCL Industrial Research Institute, has revealed that most of the color TV manufacturers have turned to a lot of Internet applications, not hardware. Li Yaqin told reporters that today, TV manufacturers have expanded their horizons to connect with IOT terminals. Intelligent operation and interconnection with other smart devices have become particularly important.

Content is not part of what TV manufacturers are good at. However, 4K content is an indispensable part of providing a complete 4K experience for users. One of the "non-hardware profit model" directions that TV manufacturers are looking for is the mode of user operation and content profitability.

For example, TCL and Tencent cooperate to provide Internet video content, and Haier TV and Ali cooperate to provide 4K content. Zhan Jiaxuan, senior manager of TCL Operations Management Department, told reporters that every time a 4K TV is sold, as long as the user consumes the content on the TV, the brand TV manufacturer has a content division. The popularity of 4K TVs can accelerate the promotion of content-generating revenue, and 4K-based home entertainment can also stimulate more content-related cross-border and innovation. Moreover, the bigger the screen, the higher the TV, the more the benefits of data consumption will be reflected. Because when the households use 4K smart TV, the data circulation will become larger and larger, and the new data-based business and intelligent innovation will bring a better future.

Last year, Guangdong Province issued a preferential policy to encourage the development of the 4K industry chain, accelerating the popularization of the 4K industry. According to internal sources, the Guangdong government will provide corresponding subsidies for the sale of 4K TVs in color TV manufacturers and distributors in Guangdong Province. Although the amount is not large, its guiding role is obvious. Wu Wei, chief engineer of Skyworth Group Co., Ltd. believes that color TV enterprises are undergoing transformation, and Guangdong's support for the 4K industry chain is timely rain, which will provide continuous driving force for the future development of the company.

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