Readers' experts look forward to the 12th Five-Year Power Economic Situation

During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, China’s electricity supply capacity to support economic and social development has been significantly enhanced, electricity investment has further increased, and the installed capacity of power generation has grown rapidly. The development of power grids has achieved a major breakthrough, and the tension in power supply and demand has been basically eased, and the power supply structure and layout have been eased. With further optimization, the ability of the power grid to optimally allocate resources has been significantly improved, and the green development capacity has been further enhanced. However, the problems existing in the power industry are also obvious. The main reason is that the unified planning of the power industry needs to be strengthened. The scientific and reasonable electricity price mechanism has not yet been formed, the proportion of green power generation is different from the development target, the technological innovation capability needs to be improved, and the market-oriented reform needs to be deepened. .

This year is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". What will happen to China's electricity supply and demand during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period? What will happen to the adjustment of the power supply structure? What will happen to the power system reform? In the “Two Conferences” to be held in 2011, the “12th Five-Year Plan” of energy will become the core issue. How do readers view these core issues? In order to understand the situation, China Electric Power News, when planning to organize the "readers look forward to the 2011 power economic situation," also organized readers to make predictions on the "12th Five-Year" power economic situation, and "Readers of this newspaper look forward to the economic situation in 2011 Like the above, the survey also targeted a number of industry experts on these hot issues. We hope that the views of readers and experts will allow us to grasp the power fluctuations during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

The composition of readers participating in the survey were as follows: power supply companies accounted for 27.36%, power generation companies accounted for 18.87%, corporate power users accounted for 6.6%, and residential power users accounted for 47.17%

Optimistic about the power supply and increase in installed capacity, the number of express delivery of oversupply: The survey results show that as high as 72.64% of readers forecast that the average annual growth rate of social electricity consumption during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will be higher than the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and 62.26% Readers predict that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the opportunities for new electric power installations will be higher than during the “11th Five-Year Plan”. Only 20.75% of readers believe that the newly installed electric power opportunities during the 12th Five-Year Plan period are lower than the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and nearly 70%. Readers believe that there will be no apparent excess of power supply capacity during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.

According to the reporter’s observation, during the first four years of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the average electricity consumption of the entire society increased by 10.2% annually, and the per capita electricity consumption increased from 1,894 kWh/person-year in 2005 to 2,742 kWh/person-year in 2009. .

In 2010, the total electricity consumption of the entire society reached 4.19 trillion kWh, an increase of 14.6% over the previous year. Affected by the previous year's base number and energy-saving emission reduction efforts, the growth rate was high before and afterwards, and fell back quarter by quarter. In 2010, the scale of China’s electricity continued to expand. The installed capacity of power generation at the end of the year reached 962 million kilowatts, an increase of 10.07% over the previous year, and an average annual increase of 13.22% over the past five years.

China is still in the middle period of industrialization. In the next five years, industrialization and urbanization will continue to develop rapidly. The area of ​​new housing and car ownership will increase rapidly, and the proportion of heavy industries with high energy consumption will remain high. By 2020, we will build a well-off society. Social goals must maintain an average annual growth rate of 7% or more in GDP. Electricity is a secondary source of clean and convenient energy. The level of electrification is an important symbol of social modernization and civilization. In order to support the construction of an overall well-to-do society, China’s electricity demand will continue to grow rapidly in the coming period.

However, compared with the prediction of experts, readers' predictions are somewhat optimistic: the average annual growth rate of social electricity consumption during the 12th Five-Year Plan is higher than that of the 11th Five-Year Plan, which means that the annual growth rate during the 12th Five-Year Plan period remains at More than 10%. The predictions of authoritative organizations are all below this figure: At the “The First Conference on Competitive Intelligence in the Electric Power Industry” held at the end of last year, the head of the Research Working Group for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for Electric Power and the Deputy Secretary-General of CEC Ouyang Changyu It is pointed out that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual increase in electricity consumption in China will be around 8.5%, and in 2015 it will reach 6.27 trillion kWh. On January 28th, Wang Siqiang, deputy director general of the National Energy Administration, said that in 2011, electricity demand in major energy-consuming industries will rebound, and electricity demand will maintain a steady growth. It is expected that electricity consumption will reach 4.5 trillion kwh. About 9% increase over 2010. To ensure the reliable and effective supply of electricity, the power needs to be moderately advanced, and experts' predictions seem to be more consistent with the expectation of GDP growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

Under the premise that the demand for electricity and power installed in the entire society will maintain rapid growth, there will be no excess of electricity demand.

Significant changes in the power supply structure significantly increase the ratio of green to digital courier: The survey results show that 50.94% of readers believe that the structure of China's power supply will change significantly during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and 32.08% of readers believe that “no”, 16.98% of readers Said "I don't know."

Reporter observed: In 2010, the nation’s investment in power projects completed a total investment of 364.1 billion yuan, of which hydropower was 79.1 billion yuan, thermal power was 131.1 billion yuan, nuclear power was 62.9 billion yuan, and wind power was 89.1 billion yuan. Non-fossil energy construction investment accounted for 63.5% of the total investment in power construction, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the previous year. Significant achievements have been made in the construction of clean energy. By the end of 2010, the total installed capacity of hydropower in the country exceeded 210 million kilowatts, accounting for 22% of the total installed capacity of power. The number of nuclear power plants under construction is 28 units totaling 30.97 million kilowatts, which is the largest in the world. Wind power added 13.9 million kilowatts of new grid-connected power, cumulative installed capacity of 31.07 million kilowatts, and annual output of 50.1 billion kwh, an increase of 81.4% over the previous year. The new installed capacity of solar power is 400,000 kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity reaches 700,000 kilowatts.

By the end of 2010, the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy accounted for 26.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous year. The cumulative power generation was 786.2 billion kwh, and the equivalent coal consumption was equivalent to 263 million tons of standard coal.

Throughout the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the proportion of China’s green power generation has been further improved. However, overall, the proportion of China’s green power generation is different from the development target. In particular, the hydropower project’s early-stage reserves are insufficient, and the cost of immigration and environmental protection has increased. . The lag in the reform of the nuclear power investment system has affected the healthy development of nuclear power. Affected by the price of electricity, the market absorption, and the level of production of power generation equipment, the task of large-scale development of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation is arduous. The further rationalization of the power supply structure can only be expected in the 12th Five-Year Plan.

If coal-fired electricity linkage does not start, the prospects of coal-fired power companies are gloomy. Digital Express: 48.11% of readers believe that the operational status of thermal power industry will improve during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and 28.3% of readers believe that the operational status of thermal power industry will maintain the status quo during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. , 23.58% of readers believe that the thermal power industry will continue to deteriorate during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.

Reporter's observation: The operational status of the thermal power industry is basically determined by two factors: one is coal price and the other is electricity price. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the increase in coal price under the marketization system becomes inevitable, while the increase in electricity price is controlled by the national plan. Although the relevant departments have established a coal-electricity linkage mechanism, the actual situation in recent years is that the coal-electricity linkage mechanism is almost in a "dormant" state.

In 2010, although the electricity consumption in China’s entire society has increased, the days of power generation companies have not been as good as the impact of high coal prices. During the winter peak season, the State Council first issued a circular on stabilizing the general level of consumer prices to ensure the basic livelihood of the masses and asked the coal industry to “strengthen self-discipline and maintain price stability”. Subsequently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Accomplishing the Coordinating Work of Coal Production and Transportation in 2011”, requiring coal companies to proceed from the overall situation of maintaining economic development and strengthen self-discipline of enterprises in the year of production and transportation in 2011. The price of key coal contracts remained unchanged at the previous year and must not be disguised in any form.

However, we must also make it clear that demanding "self-discipline" is an act of resignation, with emphasis on warnings. Many experts stated that although the increase in coal prices during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is difficult to predict, the upward trend is certain. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the key to improving the thermal power industry's operating status is to solve the contradiction between coal and electricity. The fundamental way is to promote the reform of the prices of resource products such as electricity prices and the reform of electricity marketization. The optimistic atmosphere covers the readers, and the readers are resourceful. Product price reform and power market reforms are good reasons.

The development of nuclear power should speed up but not leap forward with digital express delivery: At the beginning of the year, China announced a major technological breakthrough in nuclear research. The proven uranium resources are sufficient for 3,000 years. 41.51% of readers believe that the maturity of this technology remains to be seen, 37.74% of readers believe that the development goal of nuclear power development during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period should be significantly increased, and 20.75% of readers believe that it should not be significantly improved.

Reporter observation: Compared with other clean energy sources, nuclear power has unparalleled advantages. The first is stable electricity supply, long running time, and no climate impact. Second, the main raw material for nuclear power is uranium, with less use, and the transportation cost is much lower than that of coal, which greatly saves road and rail resources. Third, nuclear power will become increasingly dominant in the cost of power generation. The industry predicts that in the coming decades, nuclear power will become the clean energy most likely to replace coal on a large scale.

Although nuclear power is good, nuclear fuel is limited. According to experts, nuclear power plants generate electricity through the fission reaction of nuclear fuel in nuclear reactors and release energy. In the present fission reaction combustion method, China's proven uranium resources can only be used for about 50 to 70 years. How to realize the recycling of uranium and plutonium materials from nuclear fuel after combustion in nuclear power reactors is a major technical challenge.

Not long ago, Chinese scientists announced that they have made major technological breakthroughs in nuclear research and realized the recovery of uranium and plutonium materials from nuclear fuel after burning in nuclear power reactors. If we can recycle thorium materials on power reactors, it means that the uranium resources we have proven will be sufficient for 3,000 years on the scale of existing nuclear power.

However, whether a major technological breakthrough is equivalent to the mature application of technology, nearly 40% of readers questioned this. In addition, the development of nuclear power is also constrained by other factors, including how to improve safety, what kind of technology route is adopted, and how to achieve nuclear power. Equipment manufacturing, such as domestic production. The eager expectation of accelerating the development of nuclear power should not be the reason for the Great Leap Forward, or it should be developed step by step according to the development plan.

Power grid construction will achieve significant progress in both the transmission and distribution of “intelligent” construction. Digital Express: 65.09% of readers believe that the focus of power grid development during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period should be equal emphasis on transmission and distribution, 30.19% of readers believe that “Twelve Five” The focus of power grid development during the period should be distribution network. Regarding the smart grid, 66.98% of readers believe that significant progress will be made in smart grid construction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

The reporter observed: During the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s power grids have significantly improved their ability to allocate resources, the cross-regional power exchange capacity has increased significantly, and the main grid structure of all provinces has been strengthened and improved, and the power line loss rate has dropped significantly. However, the allocation of power resources does not meet the needs of economic and social development, and both the backbone network and the distribution network are “weak” and both need to be accelerated.

In the field of power distribution, in order to achieve "acceptance, success, and utilization" of electricity, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the construction of power grids in major cities, to do a good job in the construction and transformation of other cities and municipal power grids and county power grids, and to constantly increase the number of city-level cities. Power grid and county power grid power supply capacity, power supply quality and reliability indicators; improve rural power grids, improve the level of rural electrification, and effectively meet the requirements of China's economic and social development and the continuous improvement of people's living standards.

In March 2010, for the first time in the government work report released by the “two sessions” of the country, the issue of smart grid construction first appeared. At this point, smart grid construction has risen as a national strategy. Since then, local governments have issued development plans to support smart grid construction. In 2010, the first batch of pilot projects of the State Grid Smart Grid achieved preliminary results, and the second batch of pilot projects were successively carried out. At the Shanghai World Expo, China's first smart grid integrated demonstration project, the Expo Park smart grid integrated demonstration project put into use.

According to the plan, 2011 will enter the full construction period of China's smart grid. Most of the readers believe that the smart grid construction will achieve significant progress during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

The price of electricity rose slightly and the power system reform needs to break through the digital express delivery: 64.15% of readers believe that the electricity price level during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period will be slightly higher than the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. 54.72% of readers believe that there will be significant progress in the power system reform during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. Only 19.81% of readers believe that there will be no major progress in the power system reform during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and the remaining readers think that it is “unclear”.

Reporter's observation: Due to a series of conditional restrictions, China's power system reform has been virtually stagnant in recent years in actual work. Experts said that the power system reform will start again in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. Analysts said that the conditions for the comprehensive advancement of electricity price reforms have matured. The starting point for the 12th Five-Year Plan period electricity system reform is the transmission and distribution price reform, and at the same time accelerate the reform of the rural electric power system.

Starting from the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year, a new round of rural power grid reconstruction project was repeatedly mentioned in the Central Document No. 1 and government work report last year.

In mid-July 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission convened a nationwide rural power grid transformation and upgrading conference and proposed to complete a new round of rural power grid reform in 3 years, completely abolish the county-level custody system, and rationalize rural power management systems.

According to Zhang Guobao, former director of the National Energy Administration, this rural network transformation and upgrading must completely solve the problem of unreconstructed existing rural power grids. It is necessary to gradually make rural power grids and urban power grids have the same power supply reliability and ensure the power supply for agricultural production.

As for the electricity price reform, some experts pointed out that the biggest problem encountered in the reform of the electric power system is that the electricity price mechanism is not smooth, and the distorted electricity price mechanism leaves the entire industry in a state of total loss. Such a pricing mechanism is completely a rigid mechanism under the traditional planned economy system. It does not consider the full cost and does not consider the degree of scarcity of energy resources. If the electricity price mechanism is not distorted, it is normal for the electricity price to rise slightly.

In early October 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission studied and drafted the Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of Stepped Price of Residents' Living Electricity (Draft for Solicitation of Comments), and extensively solicited opinions from all sectors of society through news media and the Internet.

Among those who participated in the consultation, 61% expressed support for the ladder price mechanism and the direction of reform, and proposed amendment opinions and suggestions on the "Opinions" from different angles.