2011 LED capacity and demand analysis
In 2011, the chip production capacity will be excessive, and it is still optimistic about the future development of the industry.
This article focuses on a question, whether there will be overcapacity in the global LED industry in 2010 and 2011. The conclusion is that production capacity will be surplus in 2011, but we are still optimistic about the future development of the industry.
Analysis logic: We do not consider the industry supply and demand situation before 2009. For 2010 and beyond, we compare new demand and new supply.
Analysis of new supply: We believe that the effective capacity increase ≠MOCVD delivery quantity. We expect to add 500 units and 700 MOCVDs worldwide in 2010 and 2011, and deliver them in batches. It takes a certain period of time for the delivery of the equipment to arrive at the production. In addition, the contribution rate of the production equipment for each quarter is different for the annual production capacity. Therefore, the effective capacity increase ≠MOCVD delivery quantity. According to our calculations, the number of equivalent new MOCVDs in 2010 and 2011 was 291 and 555 respectively.
New demand decomposition: We expect about 334 sets and 426 new orders for 42 MOCVD in 2010 and 2011, including 203 and 183 LED LCD TVs respectively, and 16 and 6 laptop computers respectively. 21 sets and 21 sets are required respectively. The general lighting needs 79 sets and 197 sets respectively, and the display screen needs 11 sets and 14 sets respectively.
Supply was tight in 2010, and oversupply in 2011: Overcapacity in 2011 is a high probability event, but it does not change our view of the LED industry. Overcapacity can cause a sharp drop in chip prices, which will help accelerate the launch of the general lighting market. Once the lighting market breaks out, the LED industry will usher in a second wave of growth. Unlike the first wave, the second wave of growth continues to have longer events and will have a far-reaching impact on the industry.
We believe that in the context of oversupply of LED chips, the price of LED chips will drop sharply, and integration within the industry will accelerate. We are more optimistic about the downstream of the industry chain, it is recommended to choose companies with rapid growth in downstream applications, stable expectations, and good customer reputation. We are very optimistic about the future general lighting market. LED lights as the third generation of light source, the prospects are very bright, will drive the second wave of growth in the LED industry, please pay attention to our follow-up industry in-depth report. In addition, we are also optimistic about upstream and downstream integrated companies, their risk resistance is stronger, such as Cree, Nichia, Samsung and so on.
We give the LED industry a “recommended†investment rating, strongly recommend Silan Micro, recommend Zhejiang Sunshine and Hisense Electric.
Terminal buying gas plummeted LED industry began to decline
The global sales of mobile phones, PCs and other electronic products suddenly showed a deceleration trend, which also affected the relevant chip manufacturers; now this trend of slowdown seems to spread to the popular LED market.
US LED giant Cree recently released its latest quarterly earnings report, said RaymondJames% & Assoc iates analyst HansMosesmann: "According to Cree, demand from the general lighting sector continues to be strong, and the inventory level in the channel is also normal; however, LED-backlit TV The weakening demand, coupled with the off-season effect of the European market, also impacts the company's performance targets for the next season."
“The current situation is that the LED-backlit display market suddenly shows a downturn in the economy – is this just a single-season phenomenon, or is it actually going to last for several seasons? More importantly, is the application demand from the general lighting market? Keep Cree free from the slowdown in demand for display applications?"
Mosesmann said that the agency's view is that the LED subsidies for LED production equipment provided by the Chinese government and Samsung's TV backlight LED production are close to self-sufficiency. The LED-backlit display market is facing several seasons of overproduction. . As for the general lighting market, although the dynamics of this field are significantly different from those of display applications, Mosesmann believes that Cree, which has a 60% market share in the Asian market (excluding Japan), will also be negatively affected by LED overproduction.
According to recent data released by Cree, the company's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year ended June 27, reached a record $264.6 million, a 79% increase from the $148.1 million in the same quarter last year and a growth from the previous quarter. 13%. In total, the company's fiscal year 2010 revenue reached $867.3 million, a 53% increase from the previous fiscal year of $567.3 million, and GAAP net income increased by 402% to $152.3 million.
In addition to the slowdown in the LED market, Taiwan's ODM plants also have concerns about weak sales and rising stocks; recently Wall Street analysts downgraded Intel's 2010 revenue forecast, according to Taiwan PC supply chain news, since the end of July, PC terminal buying momentum has fallen sharply. In addition, it is understood that the overall IC supply chain inventory level in the second quarter increased by 10% compared with the first quarter, which also brought risks to the semiconductor industry's profits and future revenue.
Nantong Boxin Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.bosencontrols.com