Analysts predict the ten major semiconductor trends in 2011

In 2011, the IC market has a good reputation? GusRichard, an analyst at PiperJaffray, an investment consulting firm, listed the following ten trends in the semiconductor industry and predicted the direction of market development in 2011 and beyond.

1. The fourth wave of computing Richard thinks that the era of mobile Internet, thin client, and ultra-portable computers has arrived. This is the fourth wave of new wave computing technology. In this wave, the key technical ability is not Processors, but connectivity, bandwidth, and ultra-low power consumption. The iPad, iPhone, and Android operating systems are all early winners of this new era and pioneers in leading the fourth wave.

2. The ASIC has been replaced by PLDs. The cost of chip design has steadily increased as the process evolves. ASICs and ASSPs are being replaced by programmable logic components. At present, the SoN design cost for a 45-nm node is estimated to be approximately US$80 million, while the 32-nanometer component design cost is as much as US$130 million. PiperJaffray estimates that assuming a gross margin of 50%, the above two types of chip market demand scale must reach respectively. 400 million and 650 million US dollars in order to recover profits.

3. Increased capital intensity In the past 10 to 15 years, more and more semiconductor companies have gone to “fabless” or “fablite” and fewer and fewer companies can afford it. The cost of an advanced 12-inch wafer fab. But the question is, who has to pay for rising capital intensity? Obviously leading players such as Intel, Samsung, Toshiba, TSMC and GlobalFoundries will still be big spenders.

Richard pointed out that although there is no relevant discussion in the industry, it seems that manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and UMC have begun to demand that customers must apportion costs. It should only be a matter of time; this will also be one of the sources of capital expenditures for semiconductor companies. This will bring about a cyclical high of around 20% in capital intensity.

4. Increase in the proportion of lithographic technology costs. The lithography technology has become an increasingly important part of the capital expenditure of semiconductor fabs. The previous generation ASMLXT series 193nm infiltration lithography equipment costs 30 million euros, the latest generation The NXT series is priced at 40 million euros; while the price of EUV lithography equipment is even more expensive, the current pre-production equipment that can be shipped will cost 42 million euros. The mass production tools that are expected to be shipped by the end of 2011 The asking price is between 65 million and 70 million euros.

5. The truth about the slowing down of Moore's Law There are only three ways to increase the fab's output. The first is the micro-wafer process (Moore's Law), the second is to enlarge the wafer size, and the third is to increase the wafer's production capacity. However, for all semiconductor manufacturers except Intel and Samsung, the pace of development of Moore's Law is slowing down, and the pace of moving to the next generation of process technology has gradually stopped.

6. More and more "killer app" rises. The visibility of new semiconductor demand is increasing. This is also the semiconductor industry that has long benefited from single killer applications, and finally has the opportunity to gain new growth momentum. Richard said that there are several emerging semiconductor demand drivers. One is the so-called “fourth wave” operation led by smart phones and tablet devices, which is the ultra-portable PC; the second is to respond to more and more The device joins the networking function (ubiquitous connectivity), making the communication infrastructure needs to be upgraded.

These trends will promote the update cycle of electronic products, but will also allow more semiconductor content into the existing equipment and a range of new devices.

7. The increase in investments in communications infrastructure has been driven by the gradual shift of mobile communications from voice to more data, the increase in video content delivered through IP networks, and the rise of cloud computing, which has also driven the need for upgrading communications infrastructure.

8. Demand for home networks is increasing Broadly, demand for home networks is growing at a rate of 40% per year. Fiber to the home (FTTH) is a major driver of growth in emerging markets in this area; Internet video also contributes to FTTH. market. More and more devices support HD video, and more and more devices in the home support Internet access. These are the drivers of the home networking market. Related solutions include various wireless/wired network technologies.

9. Increasing popularity of LED lighting In the world, more and more countries have banned incandescent light bulbs and have also contributed to the LED lighting market; their speed is expected to accelerate in the next two years. At present, the European Union has already banned the sale of 75W to 100W light bulbs on the market, and will further disable all incandescent bulbs by the end of 2012; the United States has adopted a similar strategy and plans to disable all incandescent light bulbs in 2014.

Although in the beginning, energy-saving light bulbs (fluorescent lamps) should replace the mainstream of incandescent light bulbs, over time, once LEDs can provide more brightness quality and lower mass production prices, they will still be the ideal solution. PiperJaffray estimates that the market for LED lamps for general lighting will expand at a rate that doubles each year. The shipment size this year is estimated at 20 million, and will increase to 40 million next year.

10. Analog markets will decline due to excessive investment In the past decade, the analog semiconductor market has rekindled investor interest and appears to have attracted too much capital; although the analog semiconductor market has abundant niche business opportunities, PiperJaffray believes that The road ahead of the analog semiconductor industry will be more and more difficult. This market, like other wafer markets, has an inverse ratio of gross profit to output, which means that the higher the output, the lower the profits of the industry, but the lower the output, the more profitable the industry.

After Texas Instruments' 12-inch wafer fab joins the production line, it is expected to capture the high market share of the standard analog component market with very high output. Although not all analog companies will be affected, those product lines are TI's overlapping competitors are bound to face pressure.