Appliance industry: air-conditioning shipments maintained rapid growth in December

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1. In the latest data, in December, Industry Online announced 4.16 million units of air-conditioner domestic sales, a year-on-year increase of 43%, and exports of 3.43 million units, an increase of 77% year-on-year, and continued to maintain rapid growth. The data from the retail side was not as high as it was in November. China Yikang air-conditioning statistics monthly retail sales fell 9%, retail sales fell 2.5%. This is mainly due to the difference in statistical caliber and the difference between retail and shipping terminals. On the one hand, it shows that the market growth outside the first- and second-tier cities is the main force of the current market growth. Secondly, it shows that the manufacturers are more optimistic about the future market and actively prepare for the supply of the first quarter. Stock of goods. From the perspective of communication with some retailers and listed companies, the year-on-year growth of the retail market in December resumed an upward trend year-on-year, and retail-end inventory was in a reasonable state.
2. Due to the acceleration of the construction of third-tier cities in China and the acceleration of the implementation of subways, high-speed rails, etc., the corresponding supporting central air-conditioning demand will increase, and domestic enterprises will be able to obtain more orders with their better technology reserves and services to the corresponding companies. Provide new sources of profit growth. Estimating Gree and Midea’s CAGR in the central air-conditioning business for the next three years at a CAGR of approximately 40-50%, we believe that due to the better growth and profitability of the industry, we can obtain a higher valuation valuation of approximately 30 percent. Times. In addition, the proportion of central air-conditioning supporting products used by new energy companies is also increasing. With the continuous increase in market attention, it will help improve the valuation of white goods listed companies that rely on home appliances business.
3. Demand for the following domestic market at the county level and the demand driven by the acceleration of government-guaranteed housing. These two parts will be the main source of the household appliance industry's 2011 performance exceeding expectations. The market still exists due to the actual release of demand for these two components. Concerns that once the actual performance of the company's companies exceeds expectations, the sector is expected to see a two-way upward momentum of higher-than-expected performance and valuation recovery.