iPad effect gradually shows that the PC industry is facing sudden drop in sales orders.

The iPad effect faded, and heavyweight PC giants have declined their shipment expectations. In the third quarter, the peak season was not strong, and orders fell sharply in the fourth quarter. After Intel lowered its shipping target, Asustek lowered its annual shipping target. Quanta PC makers such as Quanta and Compal also lowered their third quarter target.
PC manufacturers have lowered their annual shipping targets. Except for the weak economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the exclusion of traditional computers from the iPad is also the main reason. Asus believes that the impact of tablet PCs on netbooks is spreading to traditional laptops.

Global PC demand drops

Intel recently lowered its revenue and gross margin expectations for the third quarter. Intel recently stated that the company’s third-quarter revenue is expected to be between 10.8 billion and 11.2 billion U.S. dollars, which is lower than the previous 11.2 billion to 12 billion U.S. dollars.

Intel said that due to the weak demand from mature PCs, the revenue was adjusted downwards, but supply chain inventory was in line with Intel's adjusted expectations. Intel expects to coincide with IDC's third quarter forecast. IDC said last week that global market processor demand will be weak in August.

Before Intel lowered its third-quarter earnings forecast, PC giants Hewlett-Packard and Dell have issued performance warnings. Dell’s chief financial officer, Brian Gladden, said that PC needs during the student’s return to school this year were lower than expected. Todd Bradley, head of Hewlett-Packard's PC division, also said that market demand is not ideal.

IT research firm Gartner recently lowered its forecast for global PC shipments in 2010. It said that PC sales in the second half of the year will not reach its previous expectations. Before that, it expects that global shipments in 2010 will reach 368.78 million units, up 19% year-on-year. JP Morgan analysts published a research report alleging that PC orders plummeted and the PC terminal market deteriorated significantly at the end of July, including HP, Dell, and Acer. Lenovo and others began delaying orders for the supply chain.

Demand for this decline, Gartner analysts believe that because the U.S. economic recovery in the European economy is not as exciting as expected, but there are also OEM manufacturers that in addition to factors outside the economic environment, the iPad effect, the price of only more than 500 US dollars iPad listing disorder The product plan of the first-line PC brand had to delay the release of products that could compete with the iPad. Therefore, the traditional laptop market was gradually eroded by the iPad. So despite the fact that it has entered the traditional third quarter of the PC industry, there has been no apparent recovery in demand.

Orders plummet, OEMs worry about inventory

The decline in demand has also spread to the middle reaches of the industry. The latest news from the major notebook manufacturers in Taiwan in China shows that Quanta Computer and Compal have experienced a 20% drop in shipments in July this year. It was revealed that In July this year, Quanta’s shipments of notebook computers fell by 25% to a total of 3.6 million units. In the same period, Compal’s total shipments were only 3.2 million to 3.3 million units, which is also a decrease from the previous month. It reached 20%. In addition to the cool demand, Quanta stated that customers' demand for cost reduction through shipping also forced the company to ship products expected to be shipped in July ahead of schedule in June. This has also affected 7 to some extent. Month of product shipments.

However, Quanta also acknowledged that in the third quarter of this year, the company will not be able to achieve the previously planned growth rate of 10%-20% on a sequential basis. Market observers predict that Quanta’s growth rate based on the sales of 13.7 million units in the second quarter may be only a bit higher. The number, or stay above the original level, will not have much improvement. Since Acer expects the price of notebook core components will fall in the near future, and retail channel providers currently have enough inventory, the company decided to postpone orders from July to August or even September, which also led to a direct result. The Compal shipments decreased in July.

The industry’s current concern is that in September of last year, orders were expected to be broadly clear by the end of the previous year. However, orders for December orders are completely out of sight now. If the next one includes the 11th annual holiday in the mainland, the Thanksgiving season in Europe and America, and the poor sales season in Christmas season, In December, there was another wave of inventory adjustment. Quanta and Compal have not adjusted their shipment targets for 2010. According to current order status, notebook shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to increase by 10% in the quarter. Component Factory pointed out that in fact, the system makers have not given up on the fourth quarter, and have increased their shipments through various methods.

Intel announced on September 2 that it called for Taiwanese computer makers such as ASUS and Acer to work together with Taiwan’s computer malls and online stores to cut prices and clean up inventory of notebook computers, with the highest drop of 20%. Intel hopes to use this price cut to boost sales and drive growth. Some analysts pointed out that if price cuts can effectively clean up inventory, it will further stimulate the demand for upstream semiconductor chip OEM, closed-circuit testing, sales channels, OEM and related parts and components, making the supply chain reactivated in the 3rd and 4th quarters, and finally improve its performance. . Parts manufacturers said that the global PC inventory is now considered to be high, so Taiwan may only be the first stop of notebook price cuts, and will be followed by the rest of the world.