Ministry of Commerce: The total volume of foreign trade will double in the next ten years

For the first time, China’s plan to disclose foreign trade “a decade-long increase” has been held at the 107th Canton Fair. The Ministry of Commerce held a “National Conference on Transforming the Mode of Foreign Trade Development” at a high-level specification. At the meeting, a major topic of Ministry of Commerce was introduced. "Foreign Trade Development Strategy Study" clearly stated for the first time that in the next decade, China will promote the "doubling" of both goods and services trade. By 2020, China's total trade volume including goods trade and service trade will reach 5.3 trillion US dollars. This is the first time that the Ministry of Commerce has disclosed a “blueprint” on the post-financial crisis era in the foreign trade industry with a total volume of more than US$2 trillion. In the second 10 years, that is, by the year 2030, it will “preliminarily realize the goal of a strong trade nation.”

About foreign demand:

U.S. and European economies did not recover significantly

Some optimists believe that the European and American economies will rebound from 30 months to 40 months after the official outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in September 2008. However, the report of the Ministry of Commerce shows that since the beginning of 2010, the real economy in the United States, the European Union, Japan, etc. has still not Signs of obvious stabilization and recovery are most likely to enter the long-term adjustment phase.

"Since 2010, the financial and economic stimulus policies proposed by the European Union government for bailout and monetary policy to increase liquidity are currently in a dilemma," said Li Gang, a research fellow at the Ministry of Commerce. The government needs to Foreign financial and taxation, financial policies, and the internationalization of the renminbi have begun to create more favorable conditions for Chinese export enterprises.

About the surplus:

Do not seek excessive trade surplus

Zhong Shan, vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at the meeting that the focal point for accelerating the transformation of foreign trade development mode must be based on the current situation and realize the objective of “expanding the market, adjusting the structure, and promoting balance” for foreign trade this year. It should also focus on the long-term and strengthen the international competitiveness of foreign trade. , Sustainable development, accelerate the promotion of building a business platform, improve product quality, expand emerging markets, establish export bases, improve processing trade, support service trade, expand border trade, and encourage "going out" to drive trade initiatives.

"China pursues a trade balance and does not seek a large trade surplus." Zhong Shan said at the end that China should insist on coordinated development of exports and imports, coordinated development of trade in goods and services, coordinated development of foreign trade and domestic trade, and coordination between the eastern and central and western regions. development of.

About imports:

Pay more attention to consumer products

“In China's imported product structure in 2008, the final consumer goods accounted for only 2.4%, not only compared with developed countries, but also low compared with developing countries.” Director of International Trade, Institute of World Politics and Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Song Song stated at the report that under the trade strategy of “export foreign exchange” in the past, China’s import strategy was mainly production oriented, and in the future more attention should be paid to the import of consumer products, especially branded consumer products. By increasing imports Realizing trade rebalancing can increase China's influence on prices and market order in international trade. It can also link imports with export products so that imports and exports can complement each other.

About RMB:

Accelerating the internationalization of RMB

On the timetable for the internationalization of the renminbi, the report believes that promoting free convertibility under the renminbi capital account should be the first step in this process. For this reason, the Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments are also actively studying foreign exchange management and exchange rate reform policies, including accelerating the renminbi. The internationalization of the renminbi has accelerated the marketization of the renminbi exchange rate and gradually promoted the implementation of specific implementation rules for capital account convertibility.

The report suggests that the next step in trade policy adjustments is to reduce the overall level of tariffs, while at the same time moderately reducing the consumption tax rate at the import stage.