Behind Unmanned Shelves: Crazy Intakers and Short-lived Air

(Original title: No shelves: Crazy innings and short lived air)

The leader of the leading company has conveniently spread the news of withdrawing cabinets and layoffs, and the company has denied that the unmanned shelves are subject to high rates of theft, etc., and the profit model is doubtful.

On January 10, 2018, Suning launched its unmanned shelf in Nanjing. Consumers can complete shopping through mobile code scanning and mobile payment. Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Yuze photo

In the second week of 2018, the convenience of unmanned shelf leading enterprises sent news of shutting down the first convenience store, withholding the withdrawal of cabinets in multiple cities, and layoffs. At the same time, Suning recently put on the shelf "Suning shop Biu", plans to complete the 50,000 group laying this year, after this, Jingdong, Ali, Tencent, hungry, and other giants have also entered the office; another compartment, the layout of the earlier Guo Xiaomei, Xiao e micro shop and other entrepreneurial camps may have first-mover advantage. The point-to-point battle between the two sides has already begun. Observers may judge it to be another six months.

Cutting off the flow under the line is an obvious motive for all the influxes. However, the low-threshold and easy-to-replicate nature of unmanned shelves is also an inescapable pain point. The profitability of this model has been controversial. The earlier "use of snack bars" was even more "eaten." Another surveyed consumer complained about problems such as slow replenishment of shelves and purchase of expired foods. The office's snack consumption scenario really exists, but can the business model of unmanned shelf be established? How big can this circuit be? How can the fine operation break? All are questions that need thinking.

1 Head player quit rumors spread, users are mixed

Chiba convenience called shelf replenishment mechanism in accordance with the daily operation, some shelves in the adjustment

High-speed leading unmanned goods companies seem to be in trouble. In 2017, nearly 500 million yuan in cash on the convenience facilities on January 10, 2018 reported the closure of the first convenience store, suspected withdrawal in multiple cities, layoffs news. Subsequently, a number of media reports said that the business of North Korea will be tightened, and all three or four cities in the country will be withdrawn. Enterprises with less than 50 companies will be withdrawn.

In response, a self-proclaimed ranch-friendly staff told the Beijing News reporter that grassroots employees in Beijing were to lay off two-thirds of the staff. He said that the company’s Ministry of Manpower informed on the evening of the 10th that due to the lack of supply of goods, it began to leave on the 11th. He also stated that the condition of the congested goods could not keep up for about half a month, and the most serious time started from a few days before New Year's Day.

At the same time, the reporter learned from a consumer office that Mochi facilitated low-cost promotion in his company last month because a shelf with the same product had a maximum of 10 and was quickly sold out. Some colleagues paid for orders first but still No replenishment.

In response to this, Chiba’s convenience responded that, regarding replenishment, currently the convenience of the replenishment mechanism of the shop is in line with the daily operation, and some shelves are adjusted according to background data analysis for modularization, involving product display and merchandise structure; Tianyaoqiao Road shop is currently undergoing relocation. Afterwards, Xiaobian Convenience released an official response saying that the company's business is in a good state of operation. A series of measures is to adjust and optimize it based on the "convenience and cellular" model.

Conspiracy developments need to be observed, but in the fierce competition, head companies generally rely on burning money to take a bit.

Li Lu, founding partner of Panda Capital, believes that no-shelf entry needs to consider pitfalls in this area in terms of profit model, consumer conversion rate, and supply chain.

The interviewed consumers and settled companies have different opinions on this business situation. Some consumers said that they can buy snacks without going downstairs, and there are also consumers complaining about fewer types of goods, slow replenishment, and even buying outdated foods; some companies’ manpower talks about the introduction of only one, many Inadequate management.

The head of human resources in a Beijing enterprise recalled that “some businesses started to talk about it at the beginning of last year, but mainly there are vending machines that need to be plugged in. There is no cooperation because the other party does not settle the electricity bills. Appropriate, that is, product safety remains to be observed.” The value of traffic is what multiple players mentioned. Some investors said that "shelf is not an entrance to traffic, it is already the ultimate consumer scene."

Li Lu believes that traffic is very important, but many people ignore the more important point: the current Internet products do not lack the means to reach a wide range of users, but lack the ability to transform users on a large scale. SKUs (inventory units) that are small and excessively standard may be a bottleneck that currently constrains the conversion of unsold shelves. However, more and more companies have already made it clear that they are “thousands of thousands of surfaces”, either constructing canals or collaborating with fresh produce and trying to optimize SKUs.

2 What are the short-lived air outlets between giants and entrepreneurs?

The camp of unmanned shelves needs more points to attract financing, “burning” the future; giants rush to enter the enclosure

Under the tune, the influxes seemed to believe that they were not too fast. In September 2017, I was hungry and the admission of box horses took the first time to the climax of the “understand” business of unmanned shelves. In the following November, JD.com’s unmanned smart cabinet and SF’s unmanned shelf project also Has been officially operational; to December, Alibaba, Tencent, the two giants accelerated to enter, Ali and the United States jointly launched the "small counter", Tencent lead daily fresh convenience to buy.

On the other hand, the earlier layout of Guo Xiaomei and Xiao Kui in the startup camp may have a first-mover advantage. Xiao Chi convenient CEO Si Jianghua said that the competition in the field of unmanned shelf is divided into three stages: point location, operation and technology, and supply chain competition. Which one can take the lead to reach a volume of about 300,000 points, basically it can be absolutely Advantage. Suning is the latest giant to enter. On January 10, 2018, it announced plans to complete the laying of 50,000 sets of shelves this year. From the current point of view, it may have some features in synergy with the Suning store and the empowerment of digital shelf technology.

The battle for the points of the incoming players has already entered the white-hot stage, and there are also chaos. An unmanned shelf company employee told reporters: "Some sales are for commission, and regardless of the number of people, it is possible to shop one family and one company. There are companies with less than 20 people who shop a refrigerator and a container." Some netizens even sip pictures of unmanned shelves being randomly placed in salons and some open-air venues, saying that the company is “for the sake of data”.

Other practitioners stated that they had encountered vicious competition and that their opponents took away their shelves. Since no data was updated on the payment background, replenishment by consumers was not timely. This also reflected the problem of control of the rate of theft. In addition, based on publicly available data, the number of people from 100 people, 50 to 30 people, and the number of people entering the company on unmanned shelves dropped again and again, and the difficulty in the operation and management behind them can also be imagined.

The form of unmanned shelves is aimed at the “lazy economy” and has certain commercial value. However, it has suffered profitability since its inception. Giants and capital have taken turns to promote it to a new outlet, but they have failed to extinguish the doubts of the outside world. . Judging from the current situation, behind the red-hot industry and the ones who have come before them, they may be short-lived.

Si Jianghua told reporters that no shelves are a highly concentrated industry, and the speed of the circuit is very fast. At this stage, there should be no small players who want to enter the game again. Entrepreneurial camps have reported news of business integration from time to time. Fresh Fruits and Hamime Technologies have reached a strategic partnership to facilitate mergers and acquisitions of 51 snacks, Guo Xiaomei, and Tomato.

According to Li Chengdong, an e-commerce strategist, some giants are not necessarily optimistic about this format, but are concerned about missing a possible outlet; giants and startups may play six months in the track.

3 The problem of high rates of fraud and low expansion efficiency to be solved

Can a commercial model of unmanned shelf be established? There have been investors who claim that no shelves are profitable

In the mouth of the visitors, free shops and cloths are quick, and they can achieve long-term interaction with white-collar consumers. There is no room for imagination of unmanned shelves. However, whether it can truly achieve rapid recovery and profitability is the most controversial aspect of this model. Because of the obvious high rate of fraud and low expansion efficiency, Zhu Xiaohu and other investors once said that no shelf would be profitable.

Li Chengdong analyzed with reporters that a friend who had started business in this field shared several data. The average monthly sales of each unmanned shelf were around 1,500-2,000 yuan, the gross profit margin was 25%-30%, and the moral loss rate was 3%. -7%, logistics costs about 10%, operating costs more than 5%, shelves a few hundred, do not make money is basically not losing money. However, at the same time, he also mentioned that many companies have a 7% loss-of-hazard ratio that is difficult to achieve, usually between 20% and 30%, coupled with vicious competition and other issues, and they are not optimistic about this model.

6 months, 70 shelves, and the highest cargo loss reached 50%. This is a set of data given when the founder Yi Tao, the founder of Dim Sum Bar, re-created the project, even though the number of employees who were set is more than 30. Office. The snack shelf project was terminated in May last year. Yi Tao concluded that the scene of snack consumption in the office really existed, but the mode expansion efficiency was low, and the high loss of snack food shelves was the main reason for overwhelming them.

When asked about the problem of theft, the companies interviewed expressed that they would rely on "technical + legal" means to solve the problem and did not disclose the data on the loss rate. At present, some companies such as frogs and Guo Xiaomei have announced the introduction of a credit system. In the aspect of technology anti-theft, it seems that it is still in its infancy. At present, the unmanned shelves that are already on the market are in the state of "restocking," and there is a lack of identification technology and intelligent security. Some consumers told reporters, "I see no cameras on the shelves, but you can't see people pretending to scan them."

Jingdong Home Go, Guo Xiaomei and other companies are trying to achieve “open doors and take them” through “black technology” such as face recognition, gravity sensing, and intelligent inventory management. However, some observers believe that this is an upgraded version of the vending machine, and the operational cost problem still exists.

4 In 2018, the industry will welcome two heavy fires

In the second half of last year, it was red, but the real difficulty of unmanned shelves was the refined operations after large-scale operations.

According to data from the China Electronic Commerce Research Center in January, there are currently 100 million or so users who can target in first- and second-tier cities in China. There are 100,000 to 200,000 enterprise terminal shelf capacities and 1 billion to 3 billion yuan in early market. space. According to incomplete statistics, there are no fewer than 50 start-up companies entering the no-shelf market.

Due to the limited space available for distribution and the limited SKU of the shelves, this market is limited in the end. Guo Xiaomei, the founder of Guo Xiaomei, once mentioned that this is a small market. “Even if a unicorn in the first, second, and third tier cities took out all competitors, a 100% monopoly by one person is also less than 100 billion yuan. "The market." He analyzed from the first half of the entire track, the first half of the unmanned shelf would only be a multi-billion business.

According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 50 players in the stadium. The industry generally believes that the first half of this year will be the key year for the industry to reshuffle. Li Lu believes that the last big odds to win are the traditional players who have the advantage of the supply chain, or the entrepreneurs who can run through the supply chain as quickly as possible.

In Langran Capital's forecast, the industry will be on ice this year, capital will promote mergers and acquisitions within the industry, to expand the head of the company, the formation of the industry's "Mobai" and "ofo"; on the other hand, most The unrepresented unmanned shelf companies can no longer obtain financing and have closed down; in addition, the unmanned shelf model will enter other scenes outside the office, and the supply chain competition between the head enterprises will begin to start, accelerating the situation with the giants Cooperation.

Based on the above-mentioned operational difficulties, some people in the industry believe that there is no good effect on the isolation of unmanned shelves, and a better way is to supplement retail sales. Wang Hongtao, deputy secretary-general of the China Chain Store Management Association, interviewed said that Japan also has the concept of unmanned retailing. For example, one office building has opened a whole family and then there are no shelves in the office building. This will lead to replenishment and monitoring problems. A certain degree of resolution.

The unmanned shelf looks like "a shelf plus a few bags of snacks", and anyone can enter, but the real difficulty lies in the fine-scale operations after the scale. Whether the future will be like the sharing of such a tuyere, forming a head concentration effect, other players are difficult to survive, this year may have answers.

Beijing News reporter?

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