Power battery in the event of "crisis consciousness" becomes the key to the victory of the key oligopolistic era
Bill Gates said: "Microsoft is only 18 months away from bankruptcy." Behind the highly conscious, it is dealing with the economic disruptive development brought about by the current technological rush. Whether or not they can grasp the pulse of the development of the times will be critical to the fundamentals of the market based on the market and test the forward-looking layout and response capabilities of market players.
In the field of power batteries in China, the reason why Ningde was able to rise strongly, go back to BYD, sit tight on the top spot in the market, and is directly related to the awareness of the industry crisis of its founder Zeng Yiqun. In the internal open letter published on the CATL public number in April this year, Zeng Xiaoqun wrote: “When we lie on the warm bed of policy, our competitors are facing death and desperation. The difference can be imagined."
It is this awareness of enduring safety that motivates employees to promote CATL forever in the forefront of the lithium industry. In 2016, Ningde’s sales volume ranked second in the domestic market, with a market share of 22%. In the first quarter of this year, Ningde Times surpassed BYD and shipped in the industry first. In the third quarter, the market share of Ningde Times climbed to 25.79%, further market position. Consolidate.
In March 2017, Futaihua Industry, a subsidiary of Hon Hai Group, obtained a 1.19% stake in the Ningde Times for 1 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, its valuation has exceeded 84 billion yuan; in October, traditional car companies accelerated their According to the new energy vehicle strategy, both Changan Automobile and Dongfeng Motor have confirmed their shareholding in the Ningde era. As early as June, Ningde Times has issued a listing counseling announcement and entered the listing process. After the Ningde era is expected to be listed, its market value will pursue BYD directly.
Different from the BYD battery and vehicle dual-wheel drive development model, the Ningde era only focuses on the production and R&D of power batteries, and the advantages of resource concentration are prominent. This also means that the overall strength of the Ningde era is stronger, and its market competitiveness is also strengthened. The faster.
In 2016, the domestic new energy market is undoubtedly the era of BYD. Whether it is in the field of power batteries or the new energy vehicle market, BYD is the top performer. However, after entering 2017, BYD’s battery business immediately fell to its peak, and three quarters passed. BYD has not only returned to its peak, but has even widened its gap with the Ningde era.
As we all know, the key to BYD's power battery business is that it is not externally supplied, and it is outside the market, causing the market to reflect delays. Despite the beginning of the second quarter, BYD immediately split the electronics business unit and opened the battery for export. However, as an industry leader, we must experience a period of no less than a strategic adjustment period. At present, the development of the power battery industry is at a turning point, and BYD has therefore missed three opportunities.
One is to miss the key period of industrial transformation. Entering 2017, the power battery market is gradually transformed from a policy-oriented market to a market-oriented one. In the market-based competitive environment, the product's performance advantage replaces the price advantage and becomes the first competitive power. The battery company with high-quality production capacity has become the target of the main engine plant. BYD batteries, which are not supplied externally, cannot be given priority cooperation with other mainstream car companies, thereby losing the opportunity to further seize the market.
The second is to miss the consolidation of the market golden period. Although BYD has opened batteries for external supply, the lack of capacity still limits the advancement of BYD's battery market. Deputy General Manager Li Yunfei of BYD said that BYD batteries have been in short supply in the past few years. Recently, BYD also revealed in its investor relations activity table that the company’s production capacity of the battery in the previous period was limited and it was mainly for personal use.
The battery types of the domestic OEMs are diversified, and the research and development vehicle models require a verification cycle of more than two years. Obviously, in the short term, BYD's battery external supply business is unlikely to pick up, and the industrial structure is increasingly solidified. With the passage of time, the pressure on BYD's battery export strategy will also increase.
Third, missed the adjustment of the technical route. According to data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the total amount of lithium iron phosphate battery installed in China in 2016 was 20.332 billion Wh, accounting for 72.26% of the total. In 2017, the total amount of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the third quarter has slipped to about 50%. The technical route has changed from lithium iron phosphate to triple battery. Although BYD has changed its thinking and vigorously promoted the research and development of the three yuan battery, it will inevitably require a period of adjustment. At the same time, the technical route adjustment has been completed.
Although BYD missed the opportunity, but the strength did not detract from half, with the completion of BYD adjustment period, the power battery market will be staged a more intense "doubly fight for hegemony." BYD's competitive advantage is also very prominent. Firstly, BYD's battery performance is one of the best in China. At present, the domestic new energy automobile market is still lacking in high-end capacity. The demand for high-end production capacity will even continue to rise, and the attractiveness of BYD's batteries will continue to increase;
Secondly, as long as BYD's auto business is based on a stable domestic market and continues to advance, it will complement its battery business. Panasonic and Tesla are examples. Finally, BYD’s technical chips are sufficient, regardless of vehicle manufacturing, battery production, or BYD’s. Technology is attractive enough for other companies. As long as they are strong enough, they are not afraid of finding a partner.
According to authoritative analysis, it is expected that by 2020, there will be 10 to 20 companies with about 200 power battery companies in their current wisdom. Faced with the ever-increasing industry reshuffle, how can companies respond? Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the National Science and Technology Achievements Transformation Fund, gave the answer: “The industry reshuffle period will test the market's response capability, product quality capability, financial strength, technology research and development capabilities, and supply chain support capabilities.â€
It is no accident that the market reaction capability is ranked first. It is not accidental that after all, such as the Ningde era and BYD, the two industry leaders, if they can not always be full of industry awareness of the crisis, they are also facing the danger of being replaced.
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