China's memory industry invested NAND Flash will be officially put into mass production in 2019

Recently, the research institute pointed out that China's memory industry is currently focused on investing in Yangtze River storage of the NANDFlash market, Hefei Changxin, which focuses on mobile memory, and three major camps dedicated to the integration of niche memory Jinhua. Judging from the current progress of the three manufacturers, the trial production time is expected to be in the second half of 2018. With the mass production of the three camps, the time may fall in the first half of 2019, revealing that 2019 will become China's memory production unit. year.

From the perspective of the current layout of the three major plants, the plant of Hefei Changxin was capped and completed in June of last year, and was moved into the testing machine in the third quarter of last year. The current progress of Hefei Changxin is similar to Jinhua's integration. The trial production schedule will fall in the third quarter of this year. Mass production is tentatively scheduled for the first half of 2019, with the time horizon falling behind expectations. In addition, since Hefei Changxin directly attacks LPDDR48Gb, one of the most important products of the three major DRAM makers, it is also highly likely to face patent disputes. In order to avoid this situation, in addition to actively accumulating patent rights, the initial phase may be locked in China sales.

On the other hand, Jinhua integration focused on niche-based memory was announced in July 2016. It plans to build a 12-inch plant in Jinjiang City, Fujian Province, with an investment of approximately US$5.3 billion. With the current progress, the trial production of niche-type memory will be delayed. From the third quarter of this year, the production schedule will also fall in the first half of next year.

In addition, from the perspective of the development process of Chinese manufacturers NANDFlash, at the end of December 2016, the national memory base led by Yangtze River Storage was formally grounded. The official expects to establish three 3D-NAND Flash plants in three phases. The first-stage plant was completed in September last year. It is scheduled to be moved to the machine in the third quarter of 2018, and trial production will be carried out in the fourth quarter. The initial stage of film production will be no more than 10,000 pieces for the production of 32-layer 3D-NAND Flash products. And it is expected that after the maturity of its own 64-story technology, the second and third-phase production plans will be formulated according to the circumstances.

Observing China's memory vendors' R&D and output plans, 2019 will be the first year of production of China's memory industry, but also because the two DRAM plants are not expected to have large initial production scale, and they will not shake up the existing global market structure in the short term. .

In the long term, as China's memory products mature gradually, it is expected that the existing plants of the two DRAM manufacturers will gradually become fully loaded between 2020 and 2021. Under the most optimistic projections, the two companies will collectively have about 250,000 monthly injections. Scale, may begin to affect the global DRAM market supply. On the other hand, the total capacity of the three plants in the Yangtze River Storage Project may be as high as 300,000 pieces per month. It does not rule out that after the Yangtze River’s storage has completed the 64-layer product development, it may carry out large-scale filming, and then in the next three to five years. Has a significant impact on the supply of NANDFlash.

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