Analysis on the development status of ternary lithium cathode materials
With the completion of new capacity production, the power battery with ternary lithium material as the positive electrode has replaced the power battery with lithium iron phosphate as the positive electrode in the past. As a result of such a change, the cobalt, which is the most elastic material in the ternary lithium material, has risen in price as mentioned in the article I mentioned earlier. But what exactly is the ternary lithium material, what is NCM, NCA, and what is 111, 532, 622 and 811, and how will it develop in the future, please listen to me slowly.
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By definition, a ternary material refers to a material consisting of three chemical components (elements), components (simple substances and compounds) or parts (parts). In the positive electrode material of a lithium battery, it generally refers to a material having a chemical composition of LiNixXyCozO2. Where X is Mn is NCM, and X is Al, which means NCA. The so-called 111, 523, 622, and 811 all refer to the ratio of the three numbers x, y, and z in the NCM material. For example, x:y:z in 622 is equal to 6:2:2, and its chemical composition is LiNi0. .6Mn0.2Co0.2O2. In fact, from the perspective of the microstructure of materials, NCA and NCM are very similar, so they have many sub-species of different element ratios similar to NCM, but LiNi0.8 Al0, which is currently used by Panasonic, is currently the most industrially scaled manufacturing. .05Co0.15O2, so the final NCA evolved into a special reference to it.
It can be seen that the so-called ternary materials actually refer to a large class of materials, then the problem will come. Which one of them is the future development direction? From the current popular seller reports, everyone is The development expectation of NCM is relatively consistent, the earliest is 111, followed by 532, and then there are many 622 leading companies to the 622, the future will become 811. This trend is due to the fact that Ni and Co are the main active materials in the NCM material, and Mn is only added to maintain the stability of the material during charge and discharge, in which the mobility of lithium ions is weak, compared with Ni. The Co voltage is higher and the capacity is larger. Therefore, in order to continuously increase the specific capacity of the material, the development trend is inevitably toward more and more Ni, and the direction of Mn is decreasing, so it is naturally from 111 to 523 to 622. Finally to 811 (as shown in Table 1).
Table 1. Specific capacity of various NCM materials
Source: "Development Trend of Cathode Materials for High Energy Density Lithium Ion Batteries"
But for the future NCM or NCA, the views in these reports are quite different. However, it is difficult to draw a consistent conclusion even if it is the industry. In fact, NCA and NCM are very similar two lithium-electrode positive electrode materials, all developed from lithium cobalt oxide - where Ni and Co are the main electroactive atoms Al and Mn only function to stabilize the material structure. Therefore, whether it is NCM or NCA, who is the key in the future depends on who has higher Ni content after industrial application. There is no difference between the two technical routes. Even NCM may have better stability due to Mn. The advantage of security.
As far as the current situation is concerned, the Ni content of the positive electrode material NCA in the industrialized application of Tesla battery has reached 80%, and the latest experimental variety of Sumitomo has exceeded 85%, while NCM can compete with NCA. The 811 is still far from being industrialized. It can be seen that the market for the highest-end capacity lithium battery will be mainly the NCA route for a period of time. However, due to the backwardness of NCA manufacturing technology and supply chain, it is difficult to produce large-scale NCA battery capacity in the short term. If we want to compete with Japan and South Korea, I am afraid that it can only be placed on the domestic technology leading company at 811.
Fortunately, the technical difficulties of 622 have been broken. When the positive electrode materials companies such as Shengsheng and Shanshan have the capacity to supply 622 materials, the national core enterprises such as Guoxuan and CATL have already realized the industrial application of 622 batteries. Then, in the future one or two years later, it is not entirely impossible to let the 811 enter the car. Therefore, for investors in this field, in the context of the structural overcapacity and the goal of achieving 300Wh/kg energy density in 2020, it is particularly important to find such an investment target with the potential to realize 811 industrialization technology. .
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