The Chinese and American trade wars do not hit the Chinese manufacturing industry.
After the war, the cannons, two guns... and then the gold to receive troops, this is the Sino-US trade war that makes the political and business circles frightened. It started dramatically with Trump's signing memo, and then ended dramatically with the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's television interview announcement framework agreement. The role of China is probably the one that should match your performance, you can't turn a blind eye. So this epic-level trade war ended in such a sloppy way.
In fact, the Sino-US trade war has already appeared. On August 18, 2017, the US government issued a statement announcing the launch of a survey of China under Section 301 of the Trade Protection Act to determine whether China's laws or policies on technology transfer, intellectual property and innovation discriminate against US companies. This kind of unilateralism and trade survey conducted by the United States has raised concerns about Sino-US economic and trade relations.
On March 1, 2018, the US government announced that it would impose heavy taxes of 25% and 10% on steel and aluminum imports for a long time. But then the exemption of allies, the ultimate high tariffs may be "only China." However, everyone is more willing to set the beginning of the trading post as a memorandum signed by Trump on March 23, announcing that it will take measures to impose tariffs on Chinese products, restricting Chinese investment in US mergers and acquisitions, and tax-related Chinese goods. It can reach thousands of scales and is worth about $60 billion. Because this time is not an investigation, not a scope attack, but a direct bill that is open to China.
The ancients said: "Come and not to be indecent." For the US 301 investigation list, the Chinese side quickly published a list of counter-products in less than 12 hours, the actual total amount is about $48 billion. In this list, the purpose is the US soybean and aircraft industry. If the two sides stand in the boxing ring, the American jabs hurt, and China’s backhand fists are not light.
In the notice of the Chinese and American governments, Huawei and ZTE are interspersed among the "victims" who are hotly debated by the Chinese. Huawei has always been cautious, but it has not given the US government a handle. ZTE has become a "chip" on the table, and ZTE has made a big splash in this wave of trade.
On April 16, 2018, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will ban US companies from selling parts, products, software and technology to ZTE in the next seven years, causing ZTE to be in a state of paralysis. After several rounds of guns and swords, on May 13, US President Trump sent a tweet saying that Chinese President Xi and I are providing a way for China's large mobile phone company ZTE to quickly resume business. (Because of the ZTE incident) China has too many job losses. I have told the Ministry of Commerce to complete this work as soon as possible.
The trade deficit of AmericansThe United States has repeatedly tried to test China's bottom line just to eliminate the trade deficit between China and the United States. After 2000, China became the largest trade deficit country in the United States. In 2003, after China joined the WTO, the industrialization process went further and the trade deficit between the United States and China further expanded.
To this end, in September 2003, US Treasury Secretary Snow visited China and proposed the appreciation of the renminbi, which was rejected by the then Premier Wen Jiabao. However, the EU has also expressed the same will since then. On September 13, 2003, the European Central Bank Governor Deisenberg said after meeting with European finance ministers on September 13 that the advantages of the fixed exchange rate system pegged by some Asian countries were given to the euro. There is a undue burden.
Under the urging of a number of statements and bills, China has slowly appreciated the renminbi. The adjusted US dollar against the renminbi is 1:8.11. Since then, the progressive appreciation of the renminbi in 2008 reached 1 US dollar to 6.83 yuan. The pace of appreciation of the renminbi is far behind the pace of China's manufacturing industry. Therefore, the trade deficit between China and the United States has existed to this day, which has contributed to this unconstructed trade war.
Cleaning the battlefield without warBoth China and the United States are major trading nations and important strategic partners of both sides. Therefore, the ceasefire is the result of everyone’s favorite. This trade war ended with China's active import as a "cost" rather than requiring China to reduce exports. The difference is a "natural difference" for domestic companies, especially domestic large enterprises. Then, let’s take a closer look at what China and the United States got in the trade war.
Let's first look at the United States.
We just mentioned that this trade war ended on the premise that China increased its imports from the United States, so American industry, especially the technology industry, will get full benefits. Looking back during the trade war, the momentum of the US technology stocks has been mad, and it has been a big drop for three weeks. In the second quarter, the first day of trading closed, the S&P 500 index hit a new low since February this year, falling below the 200-day moving average. This is the first time since June 2016 that companies and investors are timid in a tense situation like a trade war.
According to relevant statistics, from 2001 to 2016, US trade exports to China increased by 500 times, and trade growth to the rest of the world was only 90% during the same period. The figures clearly tell the US government that the Chinese market is too important for American companies. The United States cannot lose the world’s largest market, or the consequences are disastrous. China has 20% of the world's population, but only 11% of its land. China cannot be self-sufficient, so it must be imported to make up for the gap. In the case of soybeans, China imports 50% and 30% soybeans from Brazil and the United States each year. China is the largest customer of US soybeans.
Focusing on the electronics industry, the United States is the largest country producing semiconductor components, and China is the largest importer of semiconductor components, and it is effective to promote the healthy development of the market. Taking Qualcomm as an example, the news of the Sino-US trade war has made its business development extremely difficult, and a series of self-rescue actions such as adjusting business expectations and layoffs have been frequently performed.
According to the British Financial Times (FT), citing unnamed sources, China proposed to shift some of the semiconductors procured from South Korea and Taiwan to US procurement to reduce the trade surplus between China and the United States.
Then we look at China.
The trade war truce will allow China's supply-side reforms to proceed smoothly, and further deepen the market's decisive role in resources. In the long run, increasing competing products will bring about the vitality of long-term economic development, help promote fair competition in economic activities, increase the effect of squid, and achieve the survival of the fittest.
The trade war gave China's manufacturing industry a warning that the ceasefire of the trade war gave China's manufacturing industry an opportunity. The development of Chinese chips requires the promotion of American products and healthy competition. It is just as dangerous to “close the door†and “close the countryâ€. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, as of the end of October 2017, the import value of China's integrated circuits has reached 207.197 billion US dollars, up 14.5% year-on-year. In the same period, China's crude oil imports amounted to US$131.051 billion, and China's chip imports were 1.57 times that of crude oil imports. However, the recent fiery term of "China Core" must be step by step if it wants to be competitive. If the United States cuts off the supply of chips to China, the current Chinese chip industry will not save any well-known enterprises. ZTE is the best. example.
China has also taken a breather to improve its intellectual property strength. The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) announced on March 21st the statistics of international patent applications for registration in 2017. In terms of the number of applications from various countries, China increased by 13.4% from the previous year to 48,882, surpassing Japan's 48,208 to rise to second place. The number of US in the first place is 56,624. If the trade war starts, it will be difficult for the company to survive, and we will talk about innovative research and development. Further opening the country door will also enable China's patent quality and world level to be docked, enhance its own strength, and get rid of the situation that patents are not refined. According to the "2012 China Effective Patent Annual Report", the proportion of invention patents with higher levels of creativity and technology in China in 2012 was only 15.7%.
China's increased import of energy from the United States is mutually beneficial to both China and the United States, and it is also a microcosm of the market after their opening. For China, if the price is only 1/6 of the current East Asian price, the market will be reshuffled. For the United States, the energy and power that have been controlled for many years will eventually be abandoned.
The significance of the ceasefire between China and the United States is no less than China's accession to the WTO. One is to open the country and the other is to open the country. This time, the "sanction of ZTE" incident in the Sino-US trade war has aroused the Chinese manufacturing awakening, revealing the weakness is a good thing, breaking the "ignorance" that "can not be bought", China's manufacturing industry will be stronger. Although the trade war between the two sides has not started, China must not relax its vigilance. The "repetitive impermanence" of the "tweet" diplomacy of the Trump administration has already appeared in the Iranian incident, and the string of trade wars must be tight at all times.
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